The Elysée had scheduled Emmanuel Macron’s trip to Japan and South Korea this week long before the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East. But the regional crisis and the energy chaos it is causing all over Asia provide a strong argument for the French president, who has been seeking to foster an informal alliance of middle powers since last year in response to the global disorder caused by China and also by Donald Trump’s United States.
During his meetings in Tokyo between Tuesday and Thursday noon, and then in Seoul until Friday night, the head of state intends to explain to the leaders of the two most loyal Asian allies of Washington that they could join forces with France to build a strategic autonomy. This initial step towards emancipation would allow them to protect themselves, both politically and economically, from the whims or outbursts of the two superpowers of the planet.
“A coalition of independents”
“This call by Emmanuel Macron for a ‘coalition of independents’, made during the Shangri-La Dialogue 2025, echoes Japan’s efforts to diversify its strategic partnerships,” explains Céline Pajon, head of Japan and Indo-Pacific research at Ifri’s Asia Center.
And this message, notes the specialist, is starting to be heard in a South Korea whose strategic horizon has long been clouded by the North Korean threat. The country is now also interested in the issues of the Indo-Pacific and is gaining strategic relevance with the rise of its arms sales contracts even to Europe. More assertive on the international scene, Seoul will also be invited to the G7 summit in Evian in June.
If some senior Japanese officials and major industrialists show a desire for autonomy, it is still more complicated to move the political elites. And for Sanae Takaichi, the conservative Prime Minister whom Emmanuel Macron will meet on Wednesday, loyalty to America, regardless of the missteps of its leader, must remain the absolute cornerstone of Japanese diplomacy.
“In Japan, France’s quest for strategic autonomy is often perceived, wrongly, as a sign of rupture with the United States and of complacency towards China,” remarks Céline Pajon.
Convincing the big groups
The analyst also points out the lack of major structural Franco-Japanese projects in terms of defense industrial cooperation. To develop a 6th generation stealth fighter (GCAP) by 2035, Tokyo has chosen to partner with London and Rome rather than Paris. “And Japan would not mind seeing Germany also join the program,” notes an expert.
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