While the rest of the world experienced an average 4% increase in international tourism in 2025, the United States saw a concerning drop of 5.4% over the year.
This decline, dubbed the “Trump slump,” is attributed to stricter immigration policies, unfriendly changes to passports for LGBTQ+ individuals, enhanced border security, and currency fluctuations.
All eyes are now turning towards the FIFA World Cup, with matches set to take place in June and July across the United States, as well as in Mexico and Canada.
The event was expected to draw football fans to the United States in large numbers, but proposed changes to the ESTA system and increased social media scrutiny could lower attendance well below expectations.
What is fueling the “Trump slump” in tourism to the United States?
The United States is seeing a decrease in foreign visitors across the board. The most dramatic decline is in Canadian tourism, which fell by 28% in January 2025 compared to the previous year.
While visitors from the UK slightly increased by 0.5%, arrivals from France and Germany continued to decline.
The trend appears to be continuing into 2026. In January, the number of European travelers was 5.2% lower than the previous year.
Unpredictable foreign policy projects and on-the-ground tensions—such as threats of Greenland annexation and incidents involving U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents—make foreign visitors more hesitant.
Stricter border controls also deter travelers, especially after cases last year of Europeans and Canadians being detained and interrogated by authorities, along with reports of electronic device searches.
The United States has implemented a travel ban targeting dozens of countries, including four nations qualified for the World Cup—Iran, Senegal, Ivory Coast, and Haiti. They have also introduced a “visa integrity fee” of $250 for non-immigrant tourist and business visas.
LGBTQ+ travelers are also shying away from the US after President Trump introduced measures in January recognizing only two biological sexes: male and female.
This decision heightens concerns related to travel in a country where local laws and social climate can lead to challenging situations.
A glimmer of hope with the World Cup?
The upcoming FIFA World Cup was expected to provide a significant boost to tourism in the United States.
In November, Tourism Economics released a report anticipating that the event “will trigger a powerful rebound in international travel—reviving demand, filling hotels, and illustrating the economic impact of these mega-events.”
The data analysis group forecasted that the US would host 1.24 million international visitors for the World Cup, with 742,000 (60%) being additional visitors—trips that would not have occurred otherwise.
“After a challenging year in 2025 for international stays in the US (down 6.3%), we expect a 3.7% rebound in arrivals in 2026, with nearly a third of this growth attributed to the tournament,” the report added.
Flight bookings to the United States declining for the summer
However, more recent data suggests that these hopes were too optimistic.
In February, the US ended nine consecutive months of tourism decline, but barely, with only a 0.8% increase, according to the National Travel and Tourism Office. This followed a 4.2% drop in January.
Even more concerning, flight reservations between Europe and the US for the summer are down by over 14% year-on-year, as reported by Forbes, citing figures from aviation analysis company Cirium.
A new “obstacle to travel” could come into effect. A proposal from US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) would require future travelers to publicly disclose their last five years of social media history when applying for Electronic System for Travel Authorization (ESTA).
The European Travel Agents and Tour Operators Association (ECTAA) believes that, from the European traveler’s perspective, the “cumulative effect” of these proposals may make travel to the US “more complex, intrusive, and less accessible,” possibly even “completely dissuading travel.”
As summarized by Aran Ryan, director of sectoral studies at Tourism Economics, while the World Cup is expected to boost additional arrivals this summer, “the headwinds remain strong.”
Among these, negative sentiment towards the United States and concerns about immigration and border control policies are not “likely to be reversed by the World Cup alone.”
Hotels in host cities must now prepare for a scenario that may be less promising than anticipated, according to a report from property analysis firm CoStar.
A major concern is the lack of enthusiasm for the room blocks reserved by FIFA.
The football governing body blocked hotel rooms for ticket holders two years ago. However, hotel groups report lukewarm demand and return of unused room blocks.
While the World Cup will undoubtedly increase tourist numbers, it is the realization of the missed opportunity it could have brought that may leave a sour taste.
“Overall numbers are likely to be slightly disappointing if the trends we’re discussing today hold true,” said Jan Freitag, national director of hotel market analysis at CoStar.
