“A New, More Reasonable Regime!”

“A New, More Reasonable Regime!” It is with these measured words (in uppercase in the text) that Donald Trump expressed his hope for an agreement to be reached in the midst of the war in Iran. Or not. After a month of war, the President of the United States, not always easy to follow, is becoming impatient and increasing his threats, such as the destruction of the Kharg rule, a vital oil site for Iran where 90% of its crude oil exports transit. Tehran is concerned about an escalation, particularly a ground invasion on its territory.

The ambiguity is maintained by the leader of the United States. On Sunday, the Washington Post revealed that the Pentagon had been preparing for weeks of ground military operations in Iran. The military administration is giving “the commander in chief a maximum of options. This does not mean that the president has made a decision,” said White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt.

“Soldiers ‘on site and ready'”

“The question of troops on the ground is often biased in the formulation because we always think of Iraq in 2003, but invading Iran is simply not feasible. Neither Americans nor Israelis intend to invade Iran, which would be impossible in any case,” analyzes David Rigoulet-Roze, a researcher at the French Institute of Strategic Analysis and editor-in-chief of the journal Orients stratégique. With a territory three times larger than France, mountain ranges, and desert areas, an invasion of Iran could resemble the quagmire the United States experienced in Afghanistan.

In fact, American forces are already on the ground. According to the New York Times, no less than 50,000 American soldiers are now deployed in the Middle East, 10,000 more than usual. “The setup is in place and ready. It is feasible and possible,” stresses Jeff Hawkins, a researcher at IRIS and former U.S. ambassador. However, a large-scale ground invasion seems very unlikely. “The issue may eventually be addressed through the mobilization of special forces and commandos inside Iranian territory, but only for specific operations,” says David Rigoulet-Roze.

Uncertain War Objectives

But to assess the need to send soldiers, one must understand what Washington is truly seeking to achieve. However, “Donald Trump has been particularly opaque about his objectives,” Jeff Hawkins points out. A regime change? The Republican claims to have already achieved it, after the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, replaced by his son. Opening the Strait of Hormuz? “It would be difficult and risky militarily, even if it is crucial for him politically,” remarks the former U.S. ambassador, as the midterm elections approach in the United States and fuel prices skyrocket in a country heavily dependent on cars.

Targeting American (or commercial) ships would be easy for Tehran, which controls the northern shore of the strait along its entire length. The country has been preparing for this for about twenty years and concentrates a large part of its military forces, including maritime drones, precisely in this area. A power balance that also makes the scenario of a lasting invasion of the Kharg regime very difficult, as it is covered with oil reservoirs and pipelines and heavily protected by the regime of the Mullahs a few nautical miles from the coast.

Then there is the question of the Iranian nuclear program, where the use of commandos would make sense. “Mobilizing commandos would allow access to Iranian nuclear sites in an attempt to recover the 440 kilos of enriched uranium at 60%,” decrypts David Rigoulet-Roze, while emphasizing the difficulty of such an operation when “we do not have certainty about their location or even about their dispersion in multiple locations.” Even with small trained groups, sending American troops involves certain risks – for rather unclear benefits.

The Memory of the Hostage Crisis

Moreover, the United States has a painful history in this regard on Iranian territory. In 1980, the country launched a special forces operation to free about fifty American hostages held in the U.S. embassy in Tehran. The “Operation Eagle Claw” was a real fiasco in which eight American soldiers lost their lives and classified documents fell into the hands of the Iranians.

“Such a failure today would be the equivalent of a political death, it is difficult to see why Donald Trump would take such a risk,” emphasizes Jeff Hawkins. However, the American president, who just two weeks ago promised not to send troops “anywhere,” continues to leave doubts about a possible desperate move.