This evolution poses a major risk to the strategic Bab el-Mandeb strait, a key point for global maritime trade. A blockage would have severe consequences for Egypt, already economically fragile and dependent on the Suez Canal for its revenue.
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By the end of March, signs point to a potential new front emerging in Yemen in this Middle Eastern war. This country situated at the southern tip of the Arabian Peninsula witnessed multiple missiles launched towards Israel during the weekend of March 28 and 29. These attacks were claimed by the Houthi rebels, financially and militarily supported by Iran for years. Allies of Tehran have been quiet for a month, but initiated first bombings on Saturday, indicating possible involvement in the conflict, similar to what happened during the Gaza war.
This development poses a threat to Israel and also to maritime traffic, this time in the Red Sea. If you are already familiar with the Strait of Hormuz, get ready to explore the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Another crucial gateway for navigation in the region, the sole access point to the Red Sea from the Indian Ocean, allowing ships to then use the Suez Canal to reach the Mediterranean and Europe without having to navigate around Africa. It is a significant passage point for global commerce, with ships loaded with goods, gas, and oil passing through daily. Nearly 15% of global maritime trade flows through this corridor, which has become even more vital since the blockade of Hormuz.
However, this strait is also highly vulnerable, and the Houthi rebels, controlling its northern part, could attempt to block it, with likely less severe consequences than the Hormuz Strait, but a cumulative effect that would heavily weigh on Egypt. Egypt, deriving a large portion of its foreign currency from traffic via the Suez Canal. A blockade would be catastrophic. It has received little attention so far, but the country is facing the energy crisis head-on. In just a few weeks, the Egyptian currency has plummeted, gasoline prices surged, especially those of gas, essential for electricity production.
The government has taken drastic measures in recent days, including closing businesses and restaurants by 9 p.m., turning off streetlights at night, and promoting telecommuting. As the Easter holidays approach, this could affect tourist visits, another pillar of an economy already struggling greatly. The repercussions would be immense if the conflict escalates in the Red Sea. This prompted Marshal Sissi to appeal to his friend Donald Trump on Monday, March 30. “I told Trump: nobody can stop the war, except you! Help us, please!”, he said. A way of imploring the American president to prevent his country from plunging into a deep crisis.
