Australia “english”: The conflict in the Middle East is weakening Asian economies and providing China with a strategic opportunity to enhance its geopolitical influence.
Since the early days of the war, the United States has shifted significant military resources to the Middle East, including deploying missile defense systems in South Korea and repositioning a naval group previously in the South China Sea.
This redeployment raises concerns among Washington’s Asian allies.
According to analysts, this decision sends a troubling signal as Washington had stated earlier this year at the Shangri-La Summit on regional security that the Indo-Pacific was America’s strategic priority.
In South Korea, the relocation of components of the THAAD ballistic missile defense system, initially deployed there to counter the North Korean threat, is seen as a weakening of the defensive posture.
This impression of less solid American engagement fuels doubts throughout the region.
“If we rely on others, there are times when that dependence collapses,” acknowledged South Korean President Lee Jae-myung, as quoted in the New York Times.
Dr. John Calabrese, a researcher at the Middle East Institute, believes that the deployment of missile defense systems from South Korea sends a clear signal that a transfer of the security burden to East Asian allies seems inevitable.
“Beyond the immediate crisis, a deeper structural readjustment is taking shape. The U.S. military is now stretched on multiple fronts: in Iran, in the West, and in its longstanding commitments in East Asia,” he wrote in The Diplomat.
Favorable Context in Beijing
While many Asian countries suffer from a lack of oil supply passing through the Strait of Hormuz, China appears better prepared, potentially giving it an advantage on several fronts.
Thanks to significant oil reserves, increased electrification of its economy, and massive investments in renewable energies, Beijing is less exposed to immediate fluctuations in oil prices.
The war also allows Beijing to criticize U.S. foreign policy and present itself as a more stable and reliable partner.
Chinese propaganda media have wasted no time in denouncing what they call the beginning of U.S. entrenchment in the Middle East.
The conflict might give China more leeway militarily and diplomatically.
Pressures on Taiwan
Pressure continues to mount around Taiwan with daily incursions of Chinese military aircraft and ships beyond the median line of the strait.
Alicia Garcia-Herrero, an economist and China specialist at the European think tank Bruegel, believes the current situation could accelerate Beijing’s ambitions regarding Taiwan.
“The possibility of an armed conflict, even a brief one, is now very high in Xi Jinping’s mind,” she said.
Limited Military Industrial Capacity
The conflict in the Middle East also highlights the limitations of the U.S. military industrial capacity, according to analysts.
The high pace of missile use raises concerns about available stocks.
Some U.S. allies like Japan and Taiwan anticipate delays in the delivery of military equipment ordered for several years.
This realization is prompting some countries to rethink their armament strategy, with the idea of greater autonomy gaining ground.
Japan has recently been developing its own long-range strike capabilities.
American analysts warn that this dynamic could fuel an arms race among regional powers in Asia, as confidence in U.S. security guarantees erodes.
