The Farmers’ Bulletin presented for a 6e year its webinar analyzing the report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) regarding planting intentions for 2026 on April 2.
Commented by Jean-Philippe Boucher, co-founder of Grainwiz and blogger at Bulletinthe report offered few surprises, except for wheat, he said. The general picture of the situation suggests the continuation of current price trends, although volatility remains high due to the very unstable geopolitical context.
You can watch the Webinar on this page.
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U.S. Department of Agriculture projections
The USDA report released on March 31 was in line with market forecasts. Corn sowing forecasts were a little higher than expected, which led Jean-Philippe Boucher to say that the United States’ love affair with corn continues. Soybean plantings should decline slightly in 2026 to return to normal, but the surprise came from wheat which would post its lowest plantings since 1919, when the data was first compiled.
In Quebec, we are witnessing several underlying trends. Corn plantings would decline further, making them the lowest since 1998, for a shortfall of 85,000 tonnes. This is a downward movement that is difficult to explain and which goes against what is happening in the rest of Canada, said the specialist. Soybeans would also decline in 2026, but still with production placing it at 3e rank. Figures from StatCan, released at the beginning of March, indicate a 32% jump in wheat plantings thanks to fall wheat (feed wheat).
Despite the recent increase in fertilizer prices, the analyst relies on historical data to say that he does not foresee any change in plantings, since spring is knocking on our doors. If a change in cultivation intention were to occur, it would be next year, he said.
Demand, stocks and prices for the year
The USDA report also presented its forecasts for exports, existing and future reserves, as well as expected prices.
Jean-Philippe Boucher pointed out that corn exports have been significantly above average for several months, an indirect effect of the desire of several countries to be in the good graces of the American administration. This sustained demand and the attraction of ethanol should compensate for a good harvest, increasing stocks and lower animal consumption. The analyst’s realistic forecast calls for a price range for the year in Chicago of US$4.20 to US$5 per bushel, aside from occasional rallies.
In Quebec, production should be at 3.2 million tonnes thanks to normal yields. For trends, Jean-Philippe Boucher indicates that we are “back more towards a replacement market which supports the base”, which gives a realistic price of $275 to $300 per tonne.
The conditions in a soybean market described as “explosive” lead to greater volatility for soybeans. Despite statements from the United States regarding the resumption of purchases from China, exports are significantly below historical averages. With average production and rising stocks, soybeans will be under pressure. The crushing which will reach records should however support the price of the bean forecast between $10.40 and $12.60, according to a realistic scenario.
In Quebec, production forecasts stand at 3.07 tonnes per hectare, an increase compared to last year. Prices should be increasing with a realistic price margin between $530 and $610 per tonne.
Despite good conditions in the market in general (low production), wheat remains the unloved cereal, resulting in a neutral signal for prices. The expert anticipates a realistic price range between $5.60 and $7.20 in Chicago, while prices in Quebec should be between $275 and $315 per tonne.
Guerre et prévisions météo
To complete the picture, the analyst focused on the geopolitical context and the weather forecasts for the next season. Although energy prices have exploded, there is no anticipated impact on grains. However, the situation brings a lot of volatility which should affect corn and soybeans more.
As for the weather, the El Niño phenomenon will be back this year. The latter is associated most of the time with good returns in the United States. The data for Quebec are not sufficient to draw any conclusions. HAS
Current forecasts show good planting conditions in the United States, except for fall wheat. It will be significantly more difficult in Quebec. The scenario of a cold and rainy spring will be repeated this year. For this summer, precipitation is within normal limits, but with heat, the trend of recent years of rising temperatures still being present for 2026.
In conclusion, Jean-Philippe Boucher expects prices to be neutral, while not excluding interesting increases, which makes him say that “every rally deserves to be sold.”
To read Jean-Philippe Boucher’s blog on the grain market, click here.
