Tourism. What will be the consequences of the war in Iran on the coming season? -HIT WEST

Can we already observe consequences of the geopolitical context on the tourist season? Will the rise in fuel prices reshuffle the cards, starting with departures for the Easter holidays and long weekends in May?

 

“April in line with last year… and a big month of May”

 

The share of last minute reservations is likely to increase again this year, and it is very difficult to bet on a scenario, as explained by Nicolas Dayot, national president of the Fédération de l’Htellerie de plein air, and manager of two campsites in Finistère. (Plonévez-Porzay) and Morbihan (Séné). “What we can obviously think is that the French in general decide to go on weekends close to home to minimize the cost of transport and in particular the price of fuel..

Afterwards, what we also don’t know is whether fears about purchasing power will ultimately have an effect on reducing the overall volume of departures on vacation in the coming weeks. What we can see in the reservations is that April is roughly in line with last year, which was quite a decent month of April in terms of attendance.

The month of May is going to be a big month, because the calendar is very favorable to it. It’s going to be a big month of May with very big weekends. And the month of June, on the other hand, promises to be behind due to this calendar effect which favors the heart of spring.”

To date, it is difficult to know whether an increase in local tourism will compensate for possible cancellations, or whether the volume of travel will be maintained, with perhaps shorter stays.

But for summer, the heart of the season, campsite managers note a stability in reservations (+0.3% compared to 2025), with even some very positive signs, as Nicolas Dayot points out: “The good news is that July is on the rise. However, we know that in certain years, it is more difficult to fill than the month of August which continues to grow. Depending on the evolution of the crisis, we may have an effect of swelling attendance, thanks in particular to the French, but also thanks to the Europeans.

 

“The Germans decide to go on vacation to Europe”

 

We know in particular that the Belgian market and the German market are evolving in recent days and weeks. Particularly the Germans, who are the foreign population which has progressed the most in recent years in France and particularly in the West!

The Germans are already deciding to go on vacation this year in Europe, which will undoubtedly offer some opportunities for tourist accommodation providers on the continent, particularly French, and particularly campsites, since the Germans but also the Belgians, the Dutch and the British are camping enthusiasts.”

Even if the number of departures were maintained, the turnover of professionals could still suffer from the context, with tourists much more attentive to their spending.

 

Price, an essential factor in first reservations

 

This is what campsite managers are already seeing, by observing the profile of upcoming reservations.“There are two salient phenomena, retains Nicolas Dayotit is on the one hand, pitches for tents, caravans and motorhomes which are progressing more quickly in reservations than mobile homes and chalets. This is a sign that the French are looking for value.

We see that foreigners are also looking a little more in France than in the past. They are mainly looking for bare pitches rather than equipped accommodation. And we see that in terms of accommodation, caravans, cabins, mobile homes and chalets, they are more likely to choose mid-range accommodation which is a good compromise, both comfortable, but not as expensive as premium accommodation.

So we see clearly thatthere are budgetary decisions which have been at the heart of tourist behavior for two or three years. And this year in particular, due to the crisis, this will undoubtedly be accentuated.”

After a declining 2024 season (-6%), tourist numbers for the 2025 season were maintained in Brittany (-1% compared to 2024), according to the regional tourism office.