The suspension of air links to the Middle East by major European companies has precipitated a massive readjustment of vacation plans for the summer of 2026. The group Lufthansa – which includes Swiss, Austrian Airlines, Brussels Airlines and Eurowings – interrupted all of its flights to Dubai until the end of May, and extended this decision until October for destinations such as Abu Dhabi, Beirut and Tehran. Air France followed a similar trajectory. These cancellations affect one of the busiest air crossings between Europe and Asia, and now have a direct impact on the decisions of millions of travelers.
Until the end of February, travel sector indicators were in good shape. THE réservations pour l’été 2026 reached almost 48% of the expected volume, with Mediterranean destinations increasing and a clear recovery in long-haul flights to Egypt, which showed an increase of more than 50% over one year. The outbreak of conflict between Israel, the United States and Iran put an end to this dynamic in a few days.
A rapid collapse in reservations to the region
From the first weeks of March, tourism professionals recorded successive drops in reservations: around 15% the first week, then 25% the following. This turnaround does not only concern countries directly exposed to fighting. Destinations which, until now, benefited from strong demand — Egypt, Türkiye, Jordan — have also suffered the effects of general concern. The perception of risk, more than the geographical reality of the danger, is enough to modify purchasing behavior.
Sector projections show that the Middle East could lose between 11 and 27% of its international arrivals in 2026, while growth of 13% was expected before the crisis. In France, around 800,000 travelers have already given up their plans for the region. Air traffic disruptions amplify the phenomenon: several airspaces are partially or completely closed, lengthening journeys to South-East Asia or making certain connections impossible. Dubai, which alone concentrates a considerable part of intercontinental transit flows, illustrates the extent of the repercussions on the entire geography of travel.
Spain, Greece, Morocco: the destinations which absorb the postponement
The travelers do not give up on leaving, they reorient their plans. Southern Europe concentrates most of these postponements: Spain, which was already progressing by almost 2% before the start of the conflict, accelerated in the first quarter with more than 3.5% additional arrivals. The Balearic Islands and the Canaries absorb a significant share of displaced demand. There Greece benefits from an influx to its islands, while Italy continues to progress. France itself recorded a marked increase, a sign of increased attraction for local stays.
As for Mediterranean destinations outside the European Union, the Morocco shows an increase of around 12% over the winter, and the Tunisia confirms a comeback, with significant increases recorded by specialized tour operators. Further afield, the Caribbean, Canada and certain Atlantic destinations are capturing a growing share of long-haul demand, with increases estimated between 10 and 35% depending on the market. These figures remain provisional, as operators have not yet consolidated their data for the entire season.
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The summer of 2026 promises to be marked by uncertainty, but not stagnation. The travel sector has demonstrated in the past its capacity to adapt to geopolitical crises: flows shift, price scales recalibrate and behaviors evolve. Last minute booking, in decline in recent years in favor of advance purchases, could regain a more important place in vacationers’ decisions. For professionals, the season remains playable – but it will be more volatile than expected, and more sensitive to developments in a conflict whose duration no one knows today.
