Between massive cancellations, soaring fuel prices and airspace closures, the Iranian conflict is shaking up the tourist economy of the entire Eastern Mediterranean. Cyprus, Greece, Turkey and Egypt are paying a heavy price. While Spain and Malta benefit from an unexpected postponement of traveler flows.
The war engulfing Iran has not spared the Mediterranean tourism sector. As the fighting intensifies, the repercussions are felt as far away as the Cypriot, Greek and Egyptian coasts. In a few weeks, traveler confidence collapsed, flights were canceled by the thousands, and kerosene prices exploded, plunging part of the region into an unprecedented crisis.
Cyprus, the most affected territory
The island of Cyprus, located less than 300 kilometers from the Lebanese and Syrian coasts, is paying the heaviest price. According to a report from the Association of Hoteliers published by the site ThePrint on March 26, the cancellation rate for short-term reservations reached 100% the day after the first strikes, before falling back to around 45% a few weeks later.
The Central Bank of Cyprus has already revised its growth forecast for 2026 downwards, from 3.0% to 2.7%, explicitly citing the impact of the war.
Greece and Turkey on a tightrope
In Greece, Aegean Airlines, the country’s leading airline, recorded a double-digit drop in reservations for the summer. Same trend in Türkiye, where hoteliers in Antalya and Izmir are seeing pre-orders drop. “Nordic and American customers are moving west. They are afraid of a regional conflagration,” explains Melih Özbek, tourism consultant in Istanbul.
The two countries, whose economies depend heavily on summer revenues, fear a white season. The Greek Minister of Tourism announced last week an emergency aid plan of 50 million euros for the small islands of the Eastern Aegean.
Egypt suffocated by the rise in plane tickets
In Egypt, the problem is different but just as serious: the surge in oil prices makes travel unaffordable. The barrel of Brent crossed the threshold of 110 dollars again, unheard of since July 2022. Result: air fares to Sharm el-Sheikh and Cairo jumped by more than 200%, according to the site 22-med.com. “European families who came to spend a week at the Red Sea are giving up. The plane ticket now costs more than the stay,” laments Samir Fawzi, director of an agency in Cairo.
Hotel occupancy fell by 20 to 25% compared to last year, according to the Egyptian Tourism Federation.
Unexpected winners: Morocco and Tunisia as fallback destinations
Every crisis creates opportunities. The Western Mediterranean is taking full advantage of the withdrawal movement. Spain is recording a notable increase in reservations from the United Kingdom, Germany and France. Malta is also doing well, praising its neutrality and security.
The conflict, however, benefits certain countries in North Africa which are becoming substitute destinations: Morocco and Tunisia are cited among the destinations which attract travelers initially intended for the Middle East.
Furthermore, Istanbul airport is positioning itself as an alternative hub to the Gulf. “Transit traffic to Asia and Europe now uses the Bosphorus route,” notes an analyst from the OAG firm.
According to the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC), the conflict costs 550 million euros in tourism revenue every day in the Middle East alone. A shortfall that the Eastern Mediterranean is beginning to measure, anguish after anguish, cancellation after cancellation.
