(Kyiv) When the first American and Israeli bombs fell on Iran, Russia seemed to be among the countries able to benefit from this war, thanks to the surge in oil prices, Washington’s strategic diversion and the reorientation of Western systems of anti-aircraft defense towards the Gulf at the expense of Ukraine.
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This was without counting on the diplomatic activism of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky who, thanks to a spectacular tour in the Middle East, was able, according to officials and analysts in Kyiv, to reshuffle the cards in a region hitherto considered for granted in Moscow, four years after the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
“For the first time and to the surprise of some countries, Ukraine is acting as a state capable of providing security services, of exporting expertise in defense and security,” Ukrainian political analyst Volodymyr told AFP. Fesenko.
An upheaval compared to 2022: lacking everything, Kyiv then sought from the United States and Europe the sophisticated anti-aircraft defense systems, modern tanks and artillery shells which it sorely lacked.
Since then, the proliferation of drones on the battlefield has put the importance of some of this equipment into perspective and propelled modest Ukrainian manufacturers to the rank of major players in drone warfare and the fight against drones.
“Moscow is broken”
Every day, Ukrainian forces neutralize hundreds of Iranian-designed drones launched by Russia.
When Iran began to respond to Israeli-American strikes at the end of February by firing these same drones against other states in the Middle East, Volodymyr Zelensky quickly dispatched more than 200 anti-drone specialists to at least four countries.
And the Ukrainian president visited Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Jordan and Syria in person, becoming one of the first foreign leaders to visit the region since the outbreak of war.
“Moscow is extremely irritated by the rapid strengthening of ties between Ukraine and the Gulf countries following the Iranian campaign of air terror,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriï Sybiga said on X.
They understand that Ukraine’s unique experience has profoundly changed its role in the region.
Andriï Sybiga, Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs
According to him, Russia and its Iranian ally are using disinformation to try to stop this diplomatic push, claiming in particular that Iran would have struck a warehouse of anti-drone systems in the Emirates.
It remains to be seen what concrete benefits Kyiv can derive from this increased visibility.
“Frankly, in the Gulf countries, we can simply ask for money,” says analyst Taras Zagorodniy to AFP.
“It’s a way to develop our own technologies and attract additional resources because we need funding to support our innovations and investments,” adds this head of the National Anti-Crisis Group think tank.
The details of the defense agreements concluded with several states in the region are not known.
In the past, Volodymyr Zelensky has proposed trading Ukrainian drone know-how for advanced anti-aircraft missiles, an idea that appears to have received little traction.
Pas de percée
The Ukrainian leader also believes that strengthening ties with Gulf countries could increase pressure on Russia to end its invasion.
But analysts are tempering: these initiatives do not constitute – yet – a real breakthrough.
The impact of the two-week truce between the United States and Iran remains unclear.
Volodymyr Zelensky assures that his anti-drone units will continue their work in the Middle East but long-term interest in Ukrainian technologies remains uncertain.
The region still refrains from condemning the Russian invasion and imposing sanctions against Moscow. Many states seek to maintain good relations with both camps, in order to play a mediation role.
“It’s too early to talk about a breakthrough. This is not even a step, rather a first cautious inflection in the right direction,” writes former Ukrainian diplomat Vadym Trioukhan.
Before becoming a turning point, this dynamic will have to be maintained.
“If this pace remains, then in a few months, it will be completely realistic to land multi-year contracts worth several billions,” he believes.
