Nearly six weeks after the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East at the end of February, and the announcement of a 15-day truce between Iran and the United States, the air transport sector is suffering a double shock: soaring costs and reluctance of customers.
La flambée du kérosène
“The aviation sector is experiencing two simultaneous shocks: the surge in fuel prices – which represents the first or second largest expense item for an airline – and a shock in demand, with passengers waiting,” summarizes Paul Chiambaretto, professor at Montpellier Business School and industry expert.
After the first strikes by the United States and Israel in Iran on February 28, Tehran paralyzed the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the oil produced and some 20% of aviation fuel transits. Kerosene saw its price rise much more sharply than crude oil.
Kerosene went from $831 per ton to more than $1,800 at the beginning of April (and $1,786 on Wednesday). “Absolutely colossal,” worried Pascal de Izaguirre, president of the National Federation of Aviation and its Trades (Fnam), in an interview with La Tribune on Tuesday.
Fuel represents 25 to 30% of the operating costs of the majority of companies. With this surge in prices, we went to 45%, according to Pascal de Izaguirre.
Ticket prices rise, flights suspended
On all continents, many companies have increased their prices. And suspended flights, for reasons of safety or profitability.
Air France and KLM have raised prices on long-haul flights since March 11. The Lufthansa group (Lufthansa, SWISS, Austrian Airlines, ITA Airways, etc.) has extended the suspension of all its flights to the Middle East until the end of April, or even until the end of October for certain companies.
Increase in prices also for the Chinese Air China and China Southern, or the Hong Kong-based Cathay Pacific.
Vietnam Airlines has completely suspended around twenty domestic flights per week from April due to lack of fuel.
According to the president of Fnam, the increase is “very insufficient to compensate for the increase in costs”, but “the companies fear a negative impact if the increases become excessive”.
The surge in oil prices also affects the purchasing power of households (which spend more on gasoline), fuels inflationary fears and encourages ultimately limiting professional or personal travel, notes Paul Chiambaretto.
Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary notices changes in destinations. “People who previously wanted to either go to the Middle East or fly over the region during vacations are changing their minds and returning to Portugal, Spain, the south of France, Italy, Greece,” he told AFP in mid-March.
What about hubs in the Middle East?
Iran, attacked, responded by targeting Gulf countries, including civilian infrastructure such as airports, forcing these states to close their airspace.
Some have since reopened, but the giant airport hubs of the petromonarchies, such as Dubai and Doha, are still idling.
Ces hubs have built their business model on connecting passengers from Gulf airlines, benefiting from their position at the crossroads of connections to and from the Americas, Europe, Asia and Oceania.
Before the conflict, Dubai was the second largest airport in the world in terms of passengers (after Atlanta), while Doha rivaled Hong Kong and Frankfurt in terms of numbers.
The near paralysis in the region has caused chaos in global aviation, with passengers finding themselves stranded in Asia in particular. European and Asian companies with long-haul aircraft have announced that they have strengthened their direct connections between the two continents.
Gulf companies (Emirates, Qatar Airways, Etihad, Oman Air, etc.) represented 9.5% of global aircraft seat capacity in 2025, compared to 26.5% for European companies, according to Iata.
Towards standardization?
While airports in the region have reopened, Gulf airlines remain far from full capacity.
IATA boss Willie Walsh also warned on Wednesday, a few hours after the ceasefire, that the return to normal of kerosene supplies and a decline in hydrocarbon prices would take “several months”, even in the event of a lasting reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, “taking into account given the disruptions in refining capacity.
