Has the world become a vast casino? One might believe so given the increasingly unpredictable nature of international news. However, it is not to the mood swings of the American president that we have chosen to devote our front page this week, even if our issue is not totally unrelated to it. Donald Trump having postponed the ultimatum he had addressed to Iran until Wednesday April 8 at 2 a.m. French time, when finalizing this issue a few hours earlier, it seemed difficult to predict whether the conflict in the Middle East would degenerate further or, conversely, go back down a notch. (It is this option which ultimately seems to prevail at least temporarily: Wednesday morning, in a spectacular turnaround for which he has the secret, Donald Trump in fact announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran. News to follow on our site.)
Informing is not playing diviners and in the fog of this war so poorly prepared and conducted in such an erratic manner by the tenant of the White House, we would be careful not to announce its end when we know that Donald Trump had promised the worst to the Iranian regime if the Strait of Hormuz was not reopened within twenty-four hours. “The entire country could be destroyed in a single night… he thundered again at the start of the week, threatening to attack Iranian civilian infrastructure (bridges, power stations…). Actions worthy of Vladimir Putin in Ukraine, contrary to international law, and which raise the specter of future war crimes. What does it matter to Donald Trump. Until he changes his mind again? We wouldn’t bet on it.
Others, on the other hand, and there are more and more of them, do not hesitate to do so.
These constant reversals, this uncertainty, if they leave the foreign press perplexed to say the least, boost the business of prediction platforms like Polymarket or Kalshi which, in a few months, have not only succeeded in making the news a huge trading room but have above all attracted millions of bettors. Today, we no longer bet just on a sporting result but on almost everything. From the kidnapping of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela to the strikes on Tehran, from the winner of the French presidential election in 2027 to that of Eurovision, nothing is going well and everything is worth it.
The phenomenon is global and even if platforms like Polymarket (which is based on cryptocurrency) are theoretically prohibited in France, the United Kingdom or the United States, they are very easily accessible thanks to VPNs. “How many deportations will be carried out by the Trump administration this year? Will a large-scale famine hit Gaza? These are serious questions, where lives are at stake. But they are also subjects on which two very trendy start-ups allow you to bet… denounces Tekendra Parmar in The Intercept.
Cynicism obviously has its place in these new kinds of bets and the founders of these platforms make no secret of it. “Ah long term, explains Tarek Mansour, CEO of Kalshi, to the American investigative siteour vision is to financialize everything and create a tradable asset from any difference of opinion.†Author’s comment: “It’s as dystopian as it sounds.â€
And that says a lot about the state of the world and a certain global loss of bearings. “Play your bets because nothing is going well… we headlined one of the press reviews in the file. “Some of the more cynical platforms are symptomatic of a general detachment, of an emotional anesthetic about conflicts in the world… Una Mullay is desolate in The Irish Times, who sees the surge in betting as a sign of worsening inequalities. Not to mention the inevitable conflicts of interest between certain political actors and predictive platforms.
“Welcome to the Wild West of Paris†, headlined recently USA Today. “Bet or invest, you have to choose… lançait de son côté le magazine Bloomberg by analyzing the similarities between “the world of betting and that of investmentâ€. A confusion of genres like our societies. “If the first wave of social networks – Facebook, Twitter… – fractured our perception of a common reality, s’inquiète encore Tekendra Parmar, predictive platforms are there to monetize the rubble.â€
Also read in this issue
Artemis 2, plea for a utopia
On April 7, the Orion spacecraft was heading toward Earth after flying past the Moon and breaking a myriad of records. A mission that excites this chronicler of New Statesman, for whom space exploration, in addition to scientific advances, presents moral, philosophical and intellectual interest.
“Are you going to leave us alone with Mojtaba?â€Â: Iranians feel let down by Trump
The American president once again postponed his ultimatum to try to secure a “deal†with the Iranian regime. Which makes opponents on site fear the end of the war. And with it, a power that risks becoming “even more tyrannical and brutal†, said Iranian-American author Arash Azizi in a column for the magazine The Atlantic published before the ceasefire announcement.
Also read in the Middle East pages, the article by Anthony Samrani published in L’Orient-Le-Jour : How to rebuild a nation after the war? The two irreconcilable Lebanons
Disoriented like a tourist in a burning world
Never have people traveled abroad as much as in 2025. However, tourists, whatever their nationality, are faced with a proliferation of obstacles: closed airspace, war, refused visas, soaring fuel prices… Geopolitics does not don’t slow them down, see The Economist, but directs their destinations.
Also read, in the sequence, the article by Vikram Khanna published in The Straits Times : War in the Gulf: after the shock, Asia must review its entire energy strategy
In Hungary, Orban is gambling for his survival in a high-tension election
A few days before the April 12 election, Hungary is falling into a campaign poisoned by suspicions of illegal eavesdropping and Russian and Ukrainian interference. The polls put the opponent Peter Magyar in the lead against Viktor Orban, in power for sixteen years.
“Agribusinessâ€Â : au Brésil, l’agriculture intensive a trouvé sa bande-son
Dérivé de l’équivalent brésilien de la country, l’agribusiness is increasingly popular in the country. There is nothing rural about this musical movement: in the songs, everything is just monocultures, pesticides and heavy equipment, serving the big companies in the sector, says Brazilian journalist Carolina Abbott Galvão.
Tadej Pogacar, mischievous and ruthless champion of cycling
On Sunday April 12, Tadej Pogacar will try to win Paris-Roubaix, one of the rare races that still escapes his record, before perhaps gleaning a fifth Tour de France this summer. In The Country Weekly, Spanish journalist Carlos Arribas paints a portrait of the Slovenian cyclist, an unbeatable champion condemned to win.
