Conflict in the Middle East | Oil advances slightly, geopolitical tensions in the viewfinder

(Washington) Oil prices closed slightly higher on Monday, against a backdrop of persistent geopolitical tensions, with the market monitoring the passage of several ships through the Strait of Hormuz.

“Operators are waiting to see if the situation will get worse” in the Middle East, John Kilduff of Again Capital summarized with AFP.

Iranians and Americans rejected truce offers almost simultaneously on Monday, with Donald Trump nevertheless welcoming a “very significant” step in the conflict.

The White House confirmed that mediating countries had proposed a 45-day halt to the fighting, adding that the American president had not “validated” this idea.

“It’s still not good enough, but it’s a very significant step,” the US president said during an exchange with journalists.

Opposite, the Iranian news agency Irna affirmed that Tehran had rejected a proposed truce with the United States and Israel, supported by Pakistan’s mediation efforts.

In this context, the price of a barrel of Brent from the North Sea, for delivery in June, reference contract, increased 0.68%, to $109.77.

Its American equivalent, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI), for delivery in May, rose 0.78%, to $112.41.

The operators “are also obviously monitoring the Strait of Hormuz very closely,” de facto blocked by Iran, where “traffic seems to have increased,” adds Mr. Kilduff.

A third vessel belonging to a Turkish shipowner, an oil tanker bound for Malaysia, crossed this strategic passage on Sunday evening, announced the Turkish Minister of Transport, after previous passages on March 13 and Saturday.

On Monday, a Japanese shipping company also said that an Indian-flagged tanker belonging to its subsidiary had crossed the strait, en route to India.

A fifth of the world’s oil usually passes through this bottleneck. Traffic there has fallen by around 95% since the start of the conflict, according to the maritime monitoring platform Kpler.

According to John Kilduff, black gold prices could “fall quite quickly by $10 to $15” if the Strait of Hormuz were to reopen.

But even in this scenario, “the oil markets would remain in a situation of shortage,” warn analysts at Eurasia Group.

They estimate that around a third of the Gulf region’s oil refineries have been damaged by airstrikes since the conflict began on February 28.