A few days before the legislative elections in Hungary, eyes are focused on this central European country, where the nationalist Viktor Orbán, who is seeking a fifth consecutive mandate, is far from being the favorite.
Polls from independent institutes predict a crushing victory for the Tisza party of the pro-European conservative Peter Magyar, who has succeeded in less than two years in building an opposition movement capable of shaking up the hegemony of a leader both close to presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, and who has established his country of 9.5 million inhabitants as a model of illiberal democracy.
The pro-government institutions give the Fidesz-KDNP coalition of Viktor Orbán, 62, the winner.
While analysts expect a record turnout of around 75% to 80%, the electoral campaign was marked in its home stretch by a flood of accusations from both sides.
Domestic intelligence services are suspected of trying to discredit Tisza, phone conversations leaked showing close relations between the foreign minister and Moscow, while Viktor Orbána claimed that Peter Magyar would lead Hungary in the war in Ukraine.
Allegations of Russian interference and massive vote buying by Fidesz have also emerged.
The Hungarian elections are particularly closely observed, because Viktor Orbán has taken on “excessive importance” on a global and European scale, underlines Jacques Rupnik, specialist in central and eastern Europe at Sciences Po Paris.
Considered a model by many far-right movements in the world, as an ally by the United States of Donald Trump – which sent his vice-president, JD Vance, to support him on Tuesday – and Russia of Vladimir Putin, he has on the other hand attracted distrust and criticism. anger of the European Union, whose foreign policy he has paralyzed on numerous occasions.
In this campaign, he presents himself once again as the “safe choice” in a world plagued by turbulence.
However, faced with the stagnation of the country’s economy and corruption that has become far too blatant, the argument has not taken hold, analysts note.
Huees
“A social and psychological barrier seems to have been broken. The aura of Fidesz and the fear it exploited have weakened,” underlines political scientist Zsuzsanna Szelenyi, in a blog published by Strategic Europe. And Viktor Orbán even was greeted by a few boos during events.
Peter Magyar, who has not benefited from any appearance on public television, led an effective campaign on social networks and traveled around Hungary tirelessly since mid-February, holding four to six public meetings per day.
The 45-year-old opponent, a former Fidesz member, promised “system change,” and in particular to tackle corruption and restore public services and democratic institutions.
He also said he would make Hungary a loyal member of the EU, of which it became a member in 2004.
On Sunday, Hungarians will have the choice between five parties, the lowest number since the advent of democracy in 1990, with several parties choosing to withdraw to offer better chances to Tisza.
In Budapest, Mate Dobai, a 35-year-old computer engineer, has already made his choice: it will be Fidesz.
“I welcome his pro-peace position in Ukraine, because I find this war unnecessary,” he said.
Andrea Simon, a 57-year-old florist, says she will vote for Tisza. “I am a business manager. Taxes and contributions increase month after month, and I hardly have any customers anymore, because people are getting poorer, even in this wealthy city. HAS”
Critics of Viktor Orbán accuse him of having changed the electoral law and of using state resources to favor his party.
A documentary released in March claims that the ruling coalition plans to put pressure on some 500,000 poor voters to obtain their votes.
NGOs have also sounded the alarm over the possible manipulation of postal votes from Hungarians abroad, which are collected by parties allied to Fidesz in Romania and Serbia.
The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) has, for the second time, deployed an observer mission. But she is criticized for having entrusted a coordinating role to Vladimir Putin’s former interpreter.
