Water in the crosshairs of the conflict

Since the start of the war in the Middle East, experts have followed the escalation with a particular fear: the targeting of desalination plants. Both camps have threatened to attack this infrastructure, which is crucial for millions of people’s access to drinking water. Some have already been hit.

“As a child of the Cold War, I thought an attack on nuclear sites would lead to the worst possible outcome,” says Michael Christopher Low, director of the Middle East Center at the University of Utah. But by analyzing the rhetoric used since the start of the conflict, he came to another conclusion. “The biggest threat is against the desalination plants in the Gulf,” he believes.

Petromonarchies have become saltwater kingdoms, notes Low, who is writing a book on the issue and has visited the region more than once over the years. Around 90% of Kuwait and Bahrain’s drinking water comes from desalination plants. In Qatar, the proportion rises to 99%.

The geographical position of these factories, near the coasts and urban centers, makes them particularly vulnerable. Power plants are also built nearby to power the energy-intensive process – an additional risk for access to water if these infrastructures were damaged.

Threats and attacks

Last Monday, the American president published on his social network a new ultimatum to Iran: without an agreement on full access to the Strait of Hormuz, the United States would not hesitate to target the electrical infrastructures, “and possibly all desalination plants in the country, he wrote.

The same day, Kuwait accused Iran of attacking a desalination plant and power plant. On Wednesday, an Iranian news agency reported Israeli-US strikes against a desalination plant on the Iranian island of Qeshm. And on Friday, Kuwait again mentioned that an Iranian attack had damaged a desalination plant.

Other similar strikes were reported at the beginning of March, notably in Bahrain.

This is not the first time that desalination plants have been targeted, recalls Erika Weinthal, distinguished professor of environmental research at Duke University in North Carolina. During the Gulf War, in 1990-1991, Iraq attacked those of Kuwait. “We have also seen in other conflicts, in Yemen, Libya, Gaza, how wars can affect the capacity to produce desalinated water by destroying factories directly or by preventing the supply necessary for their operation,” notes M^me Weinthal.

Illégal

International law prohibits targeting these civilian infrastructures, unless they serve military purposes. “Whether it’s a desalination plant in Iran or the United Arab Emirates or somewhere else, it’s very difficult to imagine that it would be a legal military target,” says Laurie Blank, a clinical professor of law at Emory University in Georgia.

Donald Trump’s comment, threatening to target “all” desalination plants, is also problematic: indiscriminate bombing is not allowed.

The ultimatums may be a negotiating tool for the US president, but the fear is that Iran will use his words to increase its attacks on desalination plants in the Gulf, where around 62 million people live – in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, in Kuwait, Oman and Qatar.

“It’s quite asymmetrical: desalination plants represent a small portion of the pie in Iran, while for the Gulf countries, it is an absolutely existential worry,” says Mr. Low.

Sécheresses

Like the rest of the region, Iran must also deal with increasingly frequent droughts. Last December, the idea of ​​moving to Tehran was raised. The evacuation of some of the approximately 10 million inhabitants of the capital was also considered, if the rain did not arrive quickly, after six years of drought.

But Iran remains less arid than the Arabian Peninsula, which has no permanent rivers. Only about 3% of drinking water comes from desalination plants.

Israel has also developed significant infrastructure, and desalinated water represents 80% of the drinking resource. But for Iran, targeting Israeli factories is more difficult, due to the distance and the defense system, in particular.

“Targeting the Gulf countries is a diplomatic pressure point, and a pressure on the global economy,” underlines Mr. Low. Attacks on symbols like Dubai, known for its luxury, are shaking the feeling of stability and security in countries in the region once perceived by tourists and investors as oases of peace.

This war brings to the forefront the vulnerabilities of crucial infrastructure in conflict zones. “Drinking water is essential for human life and for people throughout the region, and it is something that should be protected,†says M^me Weinthal.