Analysts expect a decline in the American automobile market in the first quarter, while sales of leader General Motors fell by 10% over this period. In this context, the increase in fuel prices is a significant threat.
The automobile industry experienced mixed performances in the United States in the first quarter but is expected to decline, sales having been affected by the severe storms at the start of the year while being spared, at this stage, the consequences of the war in the Middle East. “The current conflict in the Middle East adds an extraordinary amount of uncertainty to the automobile market,” notes Charlie Chesbrough, economist at Cox Automotive, ahead of this week’s publication of manufacturers’ figures.
The Israeli-American offensive, launched on February 28, caused hydrocarbon prices to soar by more than 50%. The gallon (3.78 liters) of unleaded gasoline crossed the $4 average on Tuesday in the United States, a record since 2022. As the car is essential in a large part of the country, motorists are very attentive to prices at the pump. Especially since their purchasing power is eroded by post-Covid inflation, making them very circumspect in their spending. Specialists agree that the extent and stigma of the consequences will depend on the duration of the conflict, especially if it encourages the American central bank to maintain its rates or, worse, to raise them which would affect the cost of credit.
Cox Automotive expects first-quarter sales to decline 6.5% year-on-year due to storms and an unfavorable basis of comparison. Indeed, sales in the first quarter of 2025, particularly March, benefited from an influx of customers eager to buy before the customs duties introduced by President Donald Trump.
Between January and March 2026, General Motors, number one in the United States in terms of market share, saw its sales decline by 9.7% to 626,429 vehicles while those of number two, the Japanese Toyota, stagnated (-0.1%, to 569,420). On the other hand, FCA US – American subsidiary of Stellantis (Chrysler, Jeep, Dodge, Alfa Romeo, etc.) – saw its sales increase by 5% to 305,902 units in an environment “filled with challenges for the industry”, according to Jeff Kommor, director of sales in the United States.
Ford, the third historic American group with GM and Stellantis/FCA, is due to publish its figures on Thursday morning. Cox forecasts a 9.3% decline.
Towards a gracious return to electricity?
Electric vehicle specialist Tesla is also expected. The Austin (Texas) group is suffering in particular from climate skeptic Donald Trump’s removal of incentive measures, especially the end of a $7,500 subsidy in the fall. But if the war continues and further increases hydrocarbons, Tesla and its competitors in electrified vehicles (hybrid and all-electric) could well enjoy a return of affection.
A high fuel price can stimulate interest in electrified vehicles, but it must be sustainable or more pronounced to lead to a shift”, commented Jessica Caldwell, head of Edmunds Insight, estimating that consumers seem to consider the “peak as temporary”. Especially since, notes the Anderson Economic Group (AEG), vehicles today consume less fuel, teleworking has become more widespread and the United States is “self-sufficient in energy”.
