Conflict in the Middle East | The barrel of American oil soars by more than 10%, fueled by Trump’s offensive tone

(London) Oil prices accentuate their rebound on Thursday, the American benchmark even taking off by more than 10%, after a more offensive speech than expected from Donald Trump, dashing hopes of a rapid appeasement of the war against Iran.

The American president promised Wednesday to strike Iran “extremely hard” for another two to three weeks, notably threatening its energy infrastructure, although he also said he was “close to fulfilling” American strategic objectives.

“The president’s reaffirmation that countries dependent on the Strait of Hormuz must act to ensure its reopening supported the rise in the Brent risk premium,” “portending further military operations in the coming days,” reports Claudio Galimberti, Rystad Energy analyst, based in Texas.

After falling since the start of the week with the prospect of a lull, the price of a barrel of Brent from the North Sea, for delivery in June, climbed 7.76% around 8:35 a.m. (Eastern time), to $109.01.

Its American equivalent, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate, for delivery in May, rose 10.66% to $110.79.

If the United States seized the oil terminal on Kharg Island or launched a land invasion in Iran, “the price of oil could reach $200,” fears Tamas Varga, of PVM, interviewed by AFP.

In the meantime, “the Strait of Hormuz is still de facto closed”, which “reduces the supply of oil on the market”, notes Ryan Sweet, of Oxford Economics.

“The release of strategic reserves and the reduction of stocks will be all the less effective as their level decreases,” if this strategic passage, through which approximately one-fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas normally transit, “remains closed,” he adds.

According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday, the US strategic reserve lost approximately 300,000 barrels during the seven-day period ending March 27.

The energy crisis could be further aggravated by the entry into war of Yemen’s Houthi rebels, allies of Iran, who could hamper traffic in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, one of the busiest maritime corridors in the world.

Oil products are also suffering the blow from the Hormuz blockade. The price of European diesel thus exceeded $200 per barrel on Thursday, a price not seen since 2022 and the fallout from the war in Ukraine.