China is trying to play the role of mediator in the Iranian conflict: will it succeed? – BBC News Africa

As the war in the Middle East enters its second month, choking global energy supplies and sending oil prices soaring, China is trying to step in as a mediator.

This comes as President Donald Trump says US military action in Iran could end in “two to three weeks”, but with no clear vision yet on how that will happen or what comes next.

China joins Pakistan, which has emerged as an unexpected mediator in the war between the United States and Israel against Iran. Officials in Beijing and Islamabad presented a five-point plan aimed at establishing a ceasefire and reopening the strategic Strait of Hormuz.

Pakistan, which was once an ally of the United States, appears to have succeeded in convincing Trump to entrust it with a mediation role in this conflict.

Beijing, however, enters the fray as a rival to Washington on the eve of crucial trade talks between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Trump next month.

China’s support for this initiative is “very important”, said Zhu Yongbiao, Middle East expert and director of the Center for Afghanistan Studies at Lanzhou University.

“Morally, politically and diplomatically, China provides comprehensive support in the hope that Pakistan can play a more distinctive role. HAS”

It is also a turnaround for Beijing, whose official reaction to the war has until now remained quite measured. So why is China intervening now?

The peace plan was drawn up after Pakistan’s foreign minister visited Beijing to seek China’s support for the country’s efforts to negotiate an end to the conflict.

His efforts seem to have borne fruit. China’s Foreign Ministry said the two sides were making “new efforts for peace.” The joint statement agreed that dialogue and diplomacy were “the only viable option to resolve the conflicts” and called for the protection of sea lanes, including the blockaded strait.

It’s not just about oil, although that is a concern. China, the world’s largest importer of crude oil, has sufficient reserves to last a few more months.

Beijing probably decided to play a mediator role because the war in Iran threatens what Xi Jinping particularly values: stability. China needs a stable global economy as it relies heavily on exports in its attempt to revive a weakened domestic economy.

“If the rest of the world starts to slow down economically because of an energy shock, it will be difficult for Chinese factories and exporters,” says Matt Pottinger, president of the China program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

“That’s why I think when I see the Chinese foreign minister this week advising Iran to find a way to end this war, there is a certain sincerity. Beijing is worried about what this could lead to if it turns into a prolonged energy shock. HAS”

There are already fears that the industrial heart of China, considered the factory of the world, will be affected in the long term if this crisis continues.

A rise in oil prices affects the entire supply chain, from the plastics needed to make toys and games, to the raw materials for modern synthetic textiles, to the hundreds of components used in phones, electric cars and semiconductors.

The trade war waged by the United States against China during Trump’s first term pushed many of the country’s entrepreneurs to seek new markets around the world.

As a result, China’s exports to the Middle East grew almost twice as fast as its exports to the rest of the world last year. The region has become the fastest-growing market for electric cars, and China is also the largest investor in water desalination in the Middle East, where drinking water is scarce.

China Power Construction Corporation has projects in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iraq.

Through these economic ties, China has developed relationships throughout the region with both U.S. allies, such as Saudi Arabia, and adversaries, such as Iran.

Tehran and Beijing have a partnership that goes back several decades. China is Iran’s main trading partner and buys around 80% of Iran’s oil.

The Chinese government has played a mediating role in the Middle East in the past, with limited success.

In 2023, he facilitated a deal between two bitter rivals, Saudi Arabia and Iran, who had long opposed each other in proxy wars in the Middle East. They severed relations in 2016, after Saudi Arabia’s execution of a prominent Shiite Muslim scholar, provoking protests in Iran and attacks on the Saudi embassy in Tehran.

After China took over the role of mediator, the two sides agreed to restore diplomatic relations. This was in the interest of Beijing, which hoped that a rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran would reduce the risks of regional tensions.

A year later, Beijing hosted the leaders of 14 Palestinian factions, including Fatah and Hamas. The discussions resulted in a government of national unity for the occupied West Bank and Gaza.

The statement was more of an intention than a complete agreement, but it once again highlighted the role China can play in the region, as well as its interest in stability in the Middle East.

China’s partnerships around the world do not come with any security guarantees or military support.

For Beijing, the economy comes first and it is this economic interdependence with the countries of the region that gives it leverage and allows it to exercise a certain influence.

“China is cautious about the risk of being drawn into broader conflicts,†Zhu explains. “His priority, both domestically and in foreign policy, is economic development. There is broad consensus that China should not become recklessly involved in war. HAS”

But this approach has its limits. China does not have the necessary military capabilities in the region to intervene, even if it wanted to.

The United States has bases in each of the Gulf countries. The closest base to China is in Djibouti, East Africa, and was only established in 2017. It is a logistics hub for counter-piracy operations rather than a base intended to project power.

During the Israel-Iran war in 2025, China remained in the background and offered limited support, revealing the limits of its role as a partner.

Regarding this latest peace plan, the United States and Iran have not yet reacted, but pushing this initiative allows Xi Jinping to play the role of neutral arbiter and mediator and once again present himself in contrast with the leader of the other great power, the United States.

However, Beijing’s credibility as a pragmatic international actor has many limits. Its alignment with Russia regularly raises questions about its neutrality. His increased control of Hong Kong and repeated threats to annex Taiwan by force remain major concerns.

Chinese authoritarian leaders also avoid any debate on human rights and never condemn regimes for their abuses or excesses of power. All of this makes it difficult for President Xi to present himself as a credible defender of a rules-based international order.

But China remains an influential global power, guided by strategic interests. It has shown that it can exercise a certain influence in the Middle East, and it clearly aims to increase it even more in the future.