Bitcoin en bear market ? While the price of Bitcoin (BTC) remains around $67,000a large percentage of addresses are found in theoretical capital loss. Even if a movement of BTC does not necessarily mean a sale/purchase transaction, it allows you to see if there has been a loss of value in dollars since the last known movement of these bitcoins. And the findings are therefore not very bright for the moment.
- Bitcoin manages to maintain a price around 67,000 dollars, but a large part of the addresses are in theoretical loss.
- 41% of BTC in circulation are in theoretical loss since their last address transfer, almost reaching 2022 bear market levels.
According to their last movement on-chainBTC is leaning dangerously towards a majority loss of value
The metric on-chain (on blockchain) of “supply in profit and in loss“(offer in profit and loss), represents on the one hand the quantity of bitcoins whose price at last move on-chain (last recorded transfer between addresses) is lower than current price of the market (theoretical profit). And on the other hand, the “ supply in loss » corresponds to bitcoins whose last price on-chain East superior at the current price (theoretical capital loss).
Obviously, these metrics do not necessarily correspond to the initial purchase price of an investor (who may also have made a simple transfert between its wallets, and not a sale). But, it gives a good idea of the theoretical value taken/loss compared to the last movement recorded on the blockchain.
And as we will see, the répartition between the offer in profit and loss on the network of Bitcoin is close to leaning on the wrong side of the scale, which would confirm a situation of bear market (bear market) for the king of cryptos.
41% of the Bitcoin supply is theoretically in loss (if we refer to the movements on-chain)
From Bitcoin’s ATH (all-time high) at $126,000 in October 2025, the price of BTC fell by approximately 47 % as of today, April 3, 2026. And according to an analysis by Darkfost, analyst on CryptoQuant, this places 8.2 million BTCeither 41% of the circulating supply of Bitcoin, in theoretical loss since their last movement on-chain.
In contrast, there remains approximately 11.2 million BTC in a situation of profit théoriqueeither 56 % of the circulating supply. The few missing percent (3 %) being BTC quasiment à l’équilibre compared to the current price range (oscillating around $66,000-67,000).
“The level of profit and loss supply is now reaching levels typical of a true bear market.
Currently, around 11.2 million BTC remains in profit [théorique] (…) This figure is not far from the lowest level BTC in profit recorded during the previous bear market [de 2022]which amounted to 9 million BTC.
On the other hand, around 8.2 million BTC are now in loss [théorique].
Which is quite significant, considering that during the last bear market, this number reached around 10.6 million BTC. (…)»Darkfost
The analyst concludes that the market has “reached a notable level of undervaluationcomparable to the conditions observed during the previous bear market“. Many analysts and financial market observers also believe that we are close to point bas de marchéor even that it would have passed. The RSI indicator on BTC prices also leans towards the formation of a bottom.
