The opposition is disillusioned
For the Venezuelan opponents, who were hoping for a change of regime, it is a recipe for grimace. Corina Machado, Nobel Peace Prize winner and convinced Trumpist, understood that she was not part of the plans of the tenant of the White House. She – momentarily? – buried her presidential hopes and took on the role of luxury “traveling salesman” for the oil sector, trying to convince American companies to invest in Venezuela. A real challenge.
Apart from Chevron, present in the country continuously since 1923, other companies in the sector are not rushing. “Huge investments must be made to be able to exploit Venezuelan heavy oil.”notes Sebastian Santander. And to continue: “When Trump, who had brought together the bosses of the sector, noticed their reluctance, he played Trump by explaining that the first to invest in this country will reap maximum profits. The others will have missed the boat.”
Donald Trump also threatened to prevent the return of ExxonMobil to the country following statements deemed too pessimistic by its CEO, Darren Woods. He had the weakness to explain that“ a democratic transition and lasting protections for investment are necessary”, calling the country “uninvestable“immediately. For several weeks, under this pressure from the American president, Exxon finally dispatched teams to analyze the opportunities.
“We have the feeling that the machine is still launchedanalyse M. Santander. There is an explosion in the importation of Venezuelan crude oil into the United States. But also a sale to European operators, such as the Spanish Repsol, or to Indians, who remain allies of the United States. On the other hand, China, which imported 70 to 80% of Venezuelan oil, no longer receives anything. However, Caracas is very indebted to Beijing and China is starting to get impatient when it sees that Delcy Rodriguez’s regime is no longer repaying anything. What is happening here is part of the competition between the United States and China in Latin America. Not so long ago, two ports on the Panama Canal passed into the hands of the Panamanians, under American pressure, while they were held by a Hong Kong consortium. In response, boats flying the Panamanian flag were blocked on the Shanghai side. A way for China to demonstrate its dissatisfaction with this situation which has deteriorated in several countries, from Panama, to Chile, via Argentina and even in Mexico, pushed behind the back by the White House to impose new taxes of 50 % on many Chinese imports.”
Social discontent
Venezuela is today a country economically under American supervision, without any democratic or social progress. “The Venezuelans who were delighted with an American intervention and who hoped for the start of a democratic transition are becoming disillusioned, observe Sebastian Santander. There are a lot of political tensions but also economic and social tensions.” Food insecurity which affects one in three Venezuelans remains a reality, basic services struggle to function.
“Donald Trump a-t-il vraiment réfléchi à l’après capture de Nicolas Maduro ?”
Can this popular discontent shake Delcy Rodriguez’s regime? Sebastian Santander is skeptical, without ruling out any risk of instability. “We must be attentive to the Venezuelan army, pampered by Maduro. The senior officers are anxious. The issue of their amnesty is crucial. Without it, a majority of high-ranking officers risk serious trouble and they do not want to go before the judges, or possibly go to prison. This is a very worrying situation, it is part of the current legal vagueness.” Post-Maduro Venezuela is therefore far from being peaceful.
