If climate shocks redefine local opportunities, increases in the prices of natural resources raise the stakes of conflicts. Rises in oil and metal prices have often intensified violence in production areas, especially when extraction is capital-intensive and resources can be plundered. The green transition risks exacerbating these dynamics.
The demand for “transition minerals” (also known as “critical minerals”) is rapidly increasing, further exacerbating this form of predation in certain regions, while fossil fuel revenues decline elsewhere.
The specific mechanisms by which mining activities trigger conflicts also depend on the type of operation. In the case of artisanal mining, local employment plays a much larger role than in industrial mining. Moreover, pollution from mineral extraction—especially water contamination—can also reduce agricultural yields far beyond mining sites. Livelihoods are thus lost, doubly fueling conflict risks.
Risk factors often overlap. Drought-prone regions are frequently located above mineral deposits. Climate risks and resource risks could mutually exacerbate to trigger violence, although these complementarities are still poorly understood.
