(Zonebourse.com) – After being propelled yesterday by the ceasefire in the Middle East, European stock markets are a little more circumspect today. After having lost up to 0.9%, Paris concluded the session with a more limited loss of 0.22% ahead of London (-0.28%) and Frankfurt (-1.35%).
The easing of tensions between Washington and Tehran was widely celebrated by the markets yesterday. However, one night later, the context remains largely unchanged and the war rhetoric is still easily brandished.
Donald Trump thus warned that all American forces “necessary for the pursuit and destruction of the enemy” will remain in the vicinity until the real agreement reached is fully respected. “Meanwhile, our armed forces are preparing and resting, in reality anticipating their next conquest,” he added, threatening.
Markets overtaken by uncertainties
Peace therefore seems far from being achieved, especially since the Strait of Hormuz is still deserted by ships with barely 5% of the usual traffic, according to maritime monitoring data. The ceasefire was however conditional on the “complete, immediate and secure” opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
“At this stage, it is difficult to imagine the continuation of the negotiations because, after weeks of maximalist postures on both sides, the points of dissension remain important,” note the analysts at Norman K.
The Islamic Republic has also indicated that “the negotiations which will begin on April 10 in Islamabad will take place with total distrust of the American side.”
Macroeconomic consequences to watch out for
Under these conditions, oil prices, which had fallen yesterday, are rising again with 3.1% for WTI, to 100 USD per barrel, and 1% for Brent, to 97.6 USD.
“Overall, we believe that the energy shock should be temporary, unless there is an explicit breakdown of the ceasefire and a new phase of escalation (intervention by the Gulf States, blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait by the Houthis, etc.)”, comments Christophe Boucher, Investment Director at ABN AMRO Investment Solutions.
At Danske Bank, analysts believe that the conflict in Iran is weakening the outlook for the euro zone. As a result, the bank now anticipates euro zone GDP growth of 0.75% in 2026 for inflation expected at 3%, driven by the volatility of energy prices, which jumped 6.8% over one month in March.
Faced with these pressures, the institution plans two increases in key rates of 25 basis points each by the ECB in April and June 2026. However, this trajectory remains uncertain: a rapid resolution of the conflict could encourage the Frankfurt institution to maintain its deposit rate at 2% for the rest of the year.
Values in motion
TotalEnergies benefits from the rebound in black gold and signs the best performance of the CAC 40 (2.68%) ahead of Air Liquide (2.04%) while STMicro completes the podium of the day (1.57%).
In the SBF 120, Technip Energies rose 2.9% after winning a contract as part of the project to improve the Long Son Petrochemicals (LSPE) petrochemical complex, located on Long Son Island, in Vietnam.
On the decline side, emeis (formerly Orpéa) dropped 8.3%, after having given up on selling its retirement home activity in Switzerland to Tertianum, which has initiated legal proceedings.
Finally, EssilorLuxottica fell (-1.69%) after Goldman Sachs lowered its price target, citing in particular a deterioration in the organic growth prospects of the ophthalmic optics specialist.
Elsewhere in Europe, AMG Critical Materials fell by more than 12.1% in Amsterdam, after a reserved capital increase. The group placed 3,250,416 newly issued ordinary shares at a price of EUR 34 per share, generating gross proceeds in excess of EUR 110 million.
A series of mixed statistics in the United States
On the statistics front, in the United States, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased by 0.4% in February, compared with an increase of 0.3% in January, according to data released Thursday by the Commerce Department. A level in line with market expectations. “This once again confirms that inflation is sustainable in the United States, even before the start of the conflict in Iran,” underlines ABN Amro.
Furthermore, in the fourth quarter, United States GDP grew by 0.5% according to a latest estimate, while analysts were hoping for slightly more robust growth at 0.7%. Over the previous three months, GDP showed an impressive increase of 4.4%.
Still across the Atlantic, American household income contracted by 0.1% in February, while analysts were expecting an increase of 0.3%. At the same time, the spending of these same households increased by 0.5% (analysts were hoping for 0.6%). “Before the start of the war in Iran and the subsequent surge in pump prices, household consumption had already been virtually at a standstill for several months,” recalls Bastien Drut, for CRP AM.
Finally, the United States Department of Labor indicated that it had recorded 219,000 new weekly unemployment claims during the week of March 30, a figure up 16,000 compared to the level of the previous week (which was raised from 202,000 to 203,000). The number of new registrants is higher than consensus expectations, which expected 210,000.
According to ABN Amro, “in this context, the Fed will occupy a relatively comfortable position, where the most appropriate option at this stage will likely be to maintain the status quo.”
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