ETFs in Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) saw $94 million in net outflows on Wednesday, despite a 3.3% rally in Bitcoin from $67,800 to $71,000 following news of the ceasefire between the United States and Iran.
Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (NYSE:FBTC) saw the biggest outflows, at $79 million, followed by ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (NYSE:ARKB) with $74.7 million.
Moreover, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (NYSE:GBTC) saw $11 million in outflows.
During this time, iShares Bitcoin Trust (NASDAQ:IBIT) saw inflows of $40.4 million.
Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust (NYSE:MSBT) saw $30.6 million in net inflows on its debut, with volume around $34 million for the day.
This exceeded the $30 million estimate of Eric Balchunassenior analyst at Bloomberg.
MSBT was designed to compete with already established Bitcoin spot funds, with a referral fee of 0.14%, the lowest among Bitcoin ETPs.
In comparison, IBIT charges a 0.25% fee. Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (NYSE:BTC) was previously the cheapest, with fees of 0.15%.
Institutions appear to be taking profits on Bitcoin rally rather than joining the momentum, says Nick Ruckdirector of research at LVRG. This follows aggressive buying off the lows earlier in the week.
“Crypto ETFs saw outflows as soon as traders realized the ceasefire was far from a done deal,†said Jeff MeiCOO of BTSE. “Israel continued to bomb Lebanon and the Saudi Arabian pipeline was bombed by a drone,†he added.
“Traders are in extreme fear territory as divisive ceasefire talks continue to spark a sudden sense of risk flight,†said Dominick Johnanalyst at Zeus Research.
Polymarket traders estimate a 43% chance that Bitcoin ETF flows will be positive on April 9, down about 7% during the session.
Probability shows uncertainty rather than clear directional conviction.
Meanwhile, the price breakdown for the end of April shows the highest probability around $75,000, at around 61%, followed by $65,000 at 41%.
The highest price targets, above $90,000, have a very low probability, suggesting that traders are not considering a significant upward move in the near term.
