If the stock indices of emerging markets have remained in the green since the start of the year, events in the Middle East are placing them under pressure. Countries importing hydrocarbons are the first to be threatened. But through its second round effects, inflation could affect the area and the flagship theme of AI more widely. However, other growth drivers exist.
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, since the outbreak of the war in Iran on February 28, particularly penalizes one area, Asia, and in particular its emerging economies. “38% of the approximately 20 million barrels of oil that normally pass through the Strait each day are destined for China, and 15% are destined for India.Â,” underlines Mabrouk Chetouane, head of global market strategy at Natixis IM. According to CPR AM, 67% of South Korea’s black gold consumption is imported from the Middle East. This is 55% for a country like Thailand. If Korean and Chinese stocks are significant (around 200 days), Indian or Philippine reserves do not exceed one month. In the region, only Malaysia is a net exporter of oil.
A limited correction
This energy dependence, coupled with a rising dollar, has logically penalized the performance of the emerging equity asset class, of which Asia is the driving force. Since the start of the conflict, the MSCI Emerging Markets index has lost 9.5% (in dollars, as of 1isApril). A figure that hides disparities. “Compared to Asia, Latin America is immunized by Brazilian and Mexican hydrocarbon productionPrincess Mabrouk Chetouane. In terms of stock market performance, the gap is widening between the two zones. » Le MSCI Emerging Asia perd ainsi 10,2 % sur la période, contre à peine 3 % pour son équivalent latino-américain. L’indice Bovespa brésilien est meême à léquilibre…
