The situation in the Middle East is evolving, since Iran and the United States have concluded a two-week ceasefire. The war is not over, but Bitcoin still reacted positively after this good news on the geopolitical level. The king of cryptos rebounded beyond $70,000 and returned to around $73,000. Does this bullish movement mark the end of bear dominance? Is the on-chain and technical situation becoming encouraging again? We take stock in The Market Check!
Bitcoin is still in bear market conditions
Iran and the United States agreed to a fifteen-day truce, and the course of Bitcoin est repassé au-delà des 70 000 $. The king of cryptos therefore remains above $60,000and if buyers push, a return around $80,000 seems possible.
But for all that, is the situation improving from a point of view on-chain ? Not really. The price of BTC remains well below the average purchase price of short-term holders (orange) :
The situation continues to resemble the bear markets of 2018 and 2022. To find a bullish on-chain configuration according to this metric, it will be necessary to go beyond the average purchase price of short-term holders. However, this threshold is located at 82 000 $ at the time of writing these lines. BTC remains fragile around $70,000.
Bitcoin is technically fragile despite the rebound beyond $70,000
During the period of bull marketthe price of Bitcoin tends to bounce back to the level of 128, 200 and 365 day moving averages. This is particularly what happened during the two precedents bull market :
Current conditions do not reflect not a bull market. If the price moves beyond the 200-week moving average (purple), it is exchanged under the 128, 200 and 365 day moving averages. In the event of a larger rebound, the price of Bitcoin will have to rub against the zone of resistance between $80,000 and $100,000.
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index remains in the red (extreme fear)
A bull market, lol Crypto Fear and Greed Index (CFGI) spends a lot of time in the green (greed) and blue (extreme greed) zone. But as we can see in the graph below, the CFGI has not not reached the green zone since Januaryand he didn’t not touched the blue zone since July 2025. Clearly, the Market sentiment is feverish for a few months:
The good news on the geopolitical level has not changed the situation of the CFGI: theindicator is still in the extreme fear zone (red). And unfortunately, the situation still looks like the bear market of 2022 For now.
Entities over 100 BTC continue to support the king of cryptocurrencies
The the picture is dark on the Bitcoin sidewith feverish technical, on-chain and market sentiment conditions. However, there is still a positive element to report. THE entities that have more than 100 BTC continue to trust the king of cryptos:
THE addresses that have more than 100 BTC started accumulating in 2024. And even after dropping about 50% from $126,000, these wallets keep the same behavior. The king of cryptos can therefore always count on these market players.
Les points clés à retenir
The geopolitical situation is improving in the short term, but it is insufficient to find positive conditions for Bitcoin. Indeed, on-chain, technical and market sentiment analysis indicates that the king of cryptos is still in a delicate situation. Thus, sellers still have the opportunity to regain control. Despite everything, we note that entities that have more than 100 BTC continue to support Bitcoin. At the same time, the memecoin sector does not attract capital from investors.
SUIVI PORTEFEUILLE STEADY LADS 100 000$
Allocation as of 08.04.26:
💵 Stablecoins : 33 % — 💰 Cryptos : 67 %
After more than two weeks without taking any position, Cara recently took risks again. The overall environment remains uncertain, but the setup identified is particularly clean. The stop loss is set tightly and will be adjusted based on macro developments.
📠Follow the complete evolution of Cara’s portfolio and decisions in real time on Steady Lads
