Leveraged long positions in bitcoin remain near multi-year highs as bitcoin rebounds, reflecting underlying uncertainty in the market.
Mise à jour 8 avr. 2026, 3:12 p.m. Publié 8 avr. 2026, 3:05 p.m.
Translated by IA
The Bitcoin BTC$71 480.20 exceeded $70,000 following the announcement of the ceasefire in Iran, but the rally remains quite cautious for the moment.
There could be good reasons for this.
One of the most reliable indicators for estimating the future direction of bitcoin comes from tracking long positions on margin on Bitfinex. These positions, which reflect bullish bets financed by borrowed capital, still remain elevated at 80,057 BTC, around the highest level recorded in more than two years, according to TradingView data.
The data suggests that these long positions are not being closed out despite a price rise of more than 15% since their low at $60,000 two months ago. This indicates that on aggregate, market participants may not view the recent rally as sufficient confirmation that risks have fully dissipated.
Historically, Bitfinex long margin positions have functioned as a contrarian indicator. They tend to accumulate during periods of market stress and decline when prices rise. For example, long positions were sharply reduced near local lows during the unwinding of the yen carry trade in August 2024, when bitcoin fell to $49,000, and again in April 2025, due to tariff tensions under the Trump presidency, when bitcoin dropped to $76,000.
Moderate US institutional demand
At the same time, the Coinbase Premium Bitcoin Index fluctuates between a premium and a discount, indicating a lack of consistent buying pressure from U.S. investors.
The index, which tracks the price difference between bitcoin on Coinbase and the broader global market, is often used as an indicator of institutional demand.
Its indecisive positioning suggests that US flows are not strongly supporting the rise, raising questions about the sustainability of this movement.
