The Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) could remain in a bearish or transitional phase in the second quarter, according to Nic PuckrinCEO of Coin Bureau, who argues that traditional macroeconomic models are becoming less effective in explaining cryptocurrency market behavior.
Bitcoin becomes more “idiosyncratic”
Puckrin notes that Bitcoin is increasingly decoupling from traditional assets.
Its correlations with gold, stocks, the dollar and interest rates have become inconsistent, and in some cases negative, calling into question the well-established “digital gold” narrative.
Bitcoin is now more influenced by internal factors such as stablecoin flows, derivatives activity and general market structure.
The report suggests that Bitcoin’s current phase is not a confirmed uptrend, but rather a transition with persistent downside risk. It marks a downside technical range and structural support zone between $55,700 and $58,200.
Price movement is shaped less by macroeconomic signals than by credit conditions and liquidity within the cryptocurrency ecosystem, meaning volatility could persist into the second quarter.
Structural change: the rise of on-chain finance
Puckrin’s report highlights that a major theme is the rapid growth of tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) and the integration of stablecoins, which indicates an evolution of cryptos towards a parallel financial system.
RWA markets have surpassed $27 billion (+263% year-over-year), with major institutions such as BlackRock, JPMorgan and Franklin Templeton creating infrastructure for faster settlement, lower costs and 24-hour liquidity and 7 days a week.
However, challenges to scaling, such as cross-chain inefficiencies and pricing gaps, mean that widespread adoption is still 18-24 months away.
The internal dynamics of cryptocurrencies also exert pressure:
- The domination of derivatives (approximately $49 billion in open interest) amplifies short-term volatility through liquidation events
- The behavior of minors could turn bearish, as rising energy costs and lower mining difficulty could lead to increased sales
- Weak demand conditions continue to limit upward momentum
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