Bitcoin may no longer move in sync with Federal Reserve policy, according to a new report from Binance Research, indicating a structural shift driven by spot exchange-traded funds.
For years, cryptocurrency markets reacted sharply to interest rate signals, with bitcoin falling when central banks tightened monetary policy.
This pattern now appears to be breaking down, with Binance data showing that bitcoin’s correlation with its Global Quantitative Expansion Index, which tracks 41 central banks, has become sharply negative since 2024. Bitcoin spot ETFs have been approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) United States in January 2024.
Before ETFs, the relationship was slightly positive, with BTC tending to follow global easing cycles with a lag of several months. Now the report finds an inverse effect almost three times stronger, suggesting that the old link has reversed.
The change reflects an evolution in the actors who influence prices. Retail investors once dominated crypto trading and reacted to macroeconomic news. ETFs allowed institutions to play a larger role, and these companies were often positioning themselves several months in advance of policy changes, viewing BTC as an anticipatory asset.
“As a result, BTC may have shifted from a macroeconomic ‘lagging receiver’ to an ‘early price taker,'” Binance Research wrote. “A spike in easing may already be old news for BTC, and crypto-specific drivers—such as political advancements and institutional flows—may matter more than the direction of monetary easing itself. HAS”
The results come as markets face renewed fears of stagflation linked to rising oil prices and deepening geopolitical tensions over the Middle East war.
Rate expectations have fluctuated between expected declines and possible increases, a backdrop that has historically put pressure on risky assets.
Binance argues that the reaction could be overblown. In previous cycles, central banks have often pivoted to support growth despite peaks in inflation. If history repeats itself, central banks will end up favoring growth over inflation, and bitcoin will likely anticipate this pivot sooner than expected.
