The CAC 40 rose this week, driven by (fragile?) hopes of an imminent end to the war with Iran. However, during his speech to the nation, Donald Trump blew the hot air (he estimated that the American army had already eradicated the threat that Iran had so far constituted, thus suggesting that most of the objectives of the military intervention had already been been reached, and he indicated that he continued to negotiate with Iran) and the cold (he promised formidable military strikes in Iran and indicated that the crucial question of unblocking the Strait of Hormuz was not the problem of the United States).
Strikingly, «the most reassuring news came from Tehran, which leaves the door open to an end (under conditions) to the Iran-United States war“, reports LBP AM (La Banque Postale Asset Management). For now, the conflict in the Middle East continues to rage and the resumption of maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains only “embryonic“, underlines the asset management giant, who mentions short-term risks “difficiles à appréhender“, in a context of high volatility of the CAC 40, “depending on contradictory information».
The CAC 40 is awaiting a de-escalation with Iran, which would reduce the risks on inflation and the rates of the Fed and the ECB!
The central scenario for LBP AM is that of a de-escalation after a few weeks of conflict with Iran and a decline in oil and gas prices before the summer (with a welcome impact on inflation, which the stock markets should welcome), so much so that the asset manager says it remains “relatively optimistic in the medium term“, even if the risks of a much more negative scenario “remain importantHAS”. A de-escalation with Iran would reduce the upward risks on inflation and central bank key rates (Fed, ECB…) but a continuation of the escalation with Tehran “would reinforce the risks of economic recession and the demand for safe haven investments», selon LBP AM.
In the United States, March surveys confirm that energy inflation (oil and gas) will not spare the world’s leading power, which will weigh on purchasing power and household consumption by mid-2026. Ultimately, even if the United States economy is less exposed to the energy shock than other major economies, “she is not immune» asserts LBP AM. While American inflation was already recalcitrant before the shock of the war with Iran, the risk that it will not fall towards the 2% target (desired by the Fed, the American central bank) remains. So, the Fed will wait “at least 2027 to lower its key interest rates“, judges the asset manager.
Momentum’s selection of stocks on the stock market rose much more than the CAC 40 this week
The CAC 40 jumped almost 3% this week (shortened due to the Easter break), but the selection of shares on the stock market Momentumthe daily premium investment letter from Capital on the Stock Exchange (based on technical analysis and financial analysis), has appreciated much more, due in particular to the surge in stocks such as Carrefour (+6%), Thales (+12%), Exosens (+13%), Axa (+7%)… And many other values from our selection of stocks on the Stock Exchange are gaining more than 5% on the 4 recent stock market sessions, which is much more than the CAC 40.
CAC 40, Total, Carrefour, Thales, Renault, Hermès… the stock market shares on the Momentum program this week
This week, in addition to our regular updates on the financial markets and the global economy as well as the outlook for the CAC 40, Momentum gave its expectations (up or down) and its recommendations (purchase or sale) on numerous stocks on the stock market: Total, Carrefour, Thales, Renault, Hermès, EssilorLuxottica, Axa, Legrand, Pfizer, Pernod-Ricard, Eiffage, Alstom, Nvidia, Microsoft… We also gave our readers our ETF advice of the week. Discover every day our technical analysis of the CAC 40 and several stocks on the stock market and financial and economic analyses. By opting for a one-year subscription, 5 months are free. To benefit from it, simply click on the link below.
