The Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is down 3%, collapsing below $67,000 after President Trump’s speech on the Iran war hinted at an escalation of the situation in the next two to three weeks, sending the price of crude oil above $104 per barrel on Thursday.
Trump persists and signs
Markets had advanced in the hours before Trump’s speech, hoping for a de-escalation and a resumption of oil supplies via the Strait of Hormuz.
But Trump said the United States would “hit†Iran “extremely hard†over the next two to three weeks, with military objectives nearing realization.
Trump warned that there would be further strikes on Iran’s power infrastructure if no deal was reached.
He did not offer a concrete timetable for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, leaving that task to Europe and Asia.
Oil prices jumped more than 5% to above $104 a barrel on fears of prolonged supply disruptions.
Additionally, Iran reportedly requested payment in Chinese yuan or cryptocurrency for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
The ETF exodus
Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $173.73 million on April 1, a large single-day departure.
L’IBIT de BlackRock (NASDAQ:IBIT) lost $86.52 million, while le FBTC de Fidelity (BATS: FBTC) lost 78.64 million. Only the BTC Trust of Grayscale recorded modest entries.
Cumulative net flows stand at $55.95 billion, but the recent weekly trend is more red than green. When the largest ETF holders withdraw funds, it means they are repositioning themselves institutionally.
The technical breakout
Bitcoin has moved below the lower trendline of the ascending wedge formed since the February lows.
The Keltner Channel midline at $68,539 is now resistance rather than support, while the ceiling represented by the Supertrend at $74,099 remains distant.
Price tests the lower Keltner Channel band at $63,411, a level that must hold.
A daily close below this level would open a direct path towards $60,000. The descending trendline from the February peak has crossed below the upper boundary of the wedge, confirming that the recovery attempt has failed to gain momentum.
Key support lies at $65,000, then $63,411, then $60,000.
Resistance is located at $68,539 (Midline of the Keltner Channel) then at $74,099 (Supertrend). The bulls need to reclaim the $68,500 quickly, because every day they don’t, the bears get closer.
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