The Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) collapsed 23.8% in the first quarter of 2026, marking the worst first quarter performance since 2018. This is despite US spot Bitcoin ETFs seeing $1.32 billion in net inflows during the month of March, after four consecutive months of exits.
The six-month slide
Bitcoin closed the first quarter at $66,619 on Tuesday, down from its price of $87,508 on January 1.
This quarterly decline is the largest since the first quarter of 2018, when Bitcoin fell 50%, from $14,112 to $6,973.
This decline follows a 23% fall during the fourth quarter of 2025, when Bitcoin slipped to $87,508 from $114,057.
Andri Fauzan Adziima, head of research at Bitrue, said Bitcoin’s decline in the first quarter was mainly due to ETF outflows, coupled with stubborn inflation, a cautious Fed and broader divestment sentiment in the markets.
According to data from SoSoValue, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $496.5 million in net outflows during the first quarter, with $1.8 billion in outflows during the months of January and February, partially offset by 1.32 billion inflows in the month of March.
The March Reversal
March marked Bitcoin’s first positive monthly candle in six months and the first monthly ETF entries since October, suggesting a potential shift in momentum.
This follows four consecutive months of net outflows: $3.5 billion in November, $1.1 billion in December, $1.6 billion in January and $206 million in February.
However, ETF investors are still, on average, undershooting their stake, with an estimated cost base of around $84,000 compared to current prices of around $68,000.
April’s historic advantage
Historically, April has been one of the strongest months for Bitcoin, with positive returns in 7 of the last 10 years. The market often refers to this month as “October’s cousin.”
Bitcoin is up 0.44%, trapped inside an ascending wedge between the lower trendline around $67,000 and Supertrend resistance at $74,099.
The 20-day EMA, set at $68,825, sits just above the price – a level that Bitcoin must convincingly breach in order to create bullish momentum.
All other EMAs – $50 to $70,965, $100 to $76,579, $200 to $84,943 – remain well above, forming a significant ceiling.
Given the current macroeconomic pressure and wedge structure, April needs a clear break above $74,100 in order to follow the historical scenario. Otherwise, the pattern collapses around $62,000-64,000.
The needs of the second trimester
“Reversing the trend in the second quarter will require new entries into ETFs, clearer progress on crypto-friendly US regulations and a shift towards looser monetary conditions,” said Nick Ruckdirector of research at LVRG.
Min Jung, senior researcher at Presto Research, noted that long-term conviction in Bitcoin remains intact. “There is little evidence of a structural change in long-term conviction around Bitcoin. Institutional participation and adoption trends remain intact, suggesting that the movement has been more cyclical than fundamental. HAS”
In addition, the president Trump announced that the U.S.-Iran conflict could end within two to three weeks, even without a deal, which could potentially provide the macroeconomic clarity that analysts say is needed for a second-quarter turnaround.
Source de l’image : Shutterstock
