HENDERSON, Nev. – Featuring a panel discussion from the leaders of the three largest caravan manufacturers, the 2026 Priority RV Network Annual Meeting concluded Thursday at the M Resort & Casino just outside of Las Vegas.
For nearly a full hour, Winnebago Industries President & CEO Michael Happe, Forest River CEO Doug Gaeddert and THOR Industries President & CEO Bob Martin fielded questions on a host of topics including dealer profitability, overproduction, and their companies’ efforts to help dealers reduce the Repair Event Cycle Time (RECT).
When asked whether they agreed with the most recent wholesale shipments forecast – between 328,800 and 367,000 units with a median of 349,000 units – their answers painted a realistic picture of the year ahead.
Noting the RV Industry Association forecast was issued prior to the current conflict in the Middle East, Martin acknowledged reaching the higher end of that range will be “tricky.”
“I mean, you guys know better than we do,” he said gesturing to the Priority RV Network dealers in the audience. “The first three months of the year, retail’s been off and we’ve had substantial weather in a lot of areas of the country. Tariffs are still there, fuel’s still up, there’s a lot of headwinds coming at us. And then you add the war in the Middle East and we don’t know the outcome. It just gives people a reason to pause.
“There are pockets of areas that are still doing decent,” Martin continued, “but to lean into the higher end of that number, I would not be comfortable with me saying that. We’re just being cautious. We’re always going to be very conservative in our numbers and that’s where – going back into how do we help you guys be profitable – we all have to be responsible in limiting our production and not overproduce.”
For his part, Happe said Winnebago Industries is forecasting a “meaningfully lower” range of between 315,000 to 345,000 shipments, with a midpoint at 330,000.
“I hope I’m wrong. I hope it’s higher and we do see retail and subsequently wholesale shipments pick up throughout the year, but we’re just not seeing enough green shoots or indications of that quite yet,” Happe said.
“I think there’s a possibility – and you guys will all determine this ultimately – but I think there’s a possibility the industry could de-stock another 10,000 to 15,000 units this year on the inventory side, just making sure inventory terms are in a balanced place,” he concluded.
Gaeddert said he thought RVIA’s forecast could be accurate, but ever-changing world events make it difficult to say for certain.
“We’re in a changing world every day right now. I mean, the first thing you do is take a look on your phone and see what happened overnight,” he said. “But it’s going to depend, to a certain degree, how quickly do we get some things resolved in the Middle East?
“Right now,” Gaeddert continued, “we’re in that first week of April. We’re right at the prime time, and moving into those largest retail months of the year. If we can get some closure, some settlement, some stability, we’re in a good part of the year for that to happen and still hit those numbers. But the longer it goes, the less the opportunities are to finish out in that upper end of that range.”
Read the full Q&A of the OEM Panel Discussion in the May/June issue of RVBusiness.
