The price of Bitcoin has just ended March in the positive after several months in the red. BTC is recovering after a sharp decline, but it remains fragile on a technical level. Indeed, it continues to trade below the 350-day moving average. Will a new bearish phase begin in April? Whatever happens, an Alpharactal indicator indicates that the whales are cautious at this time. Here we go for the April 4 newsletter!
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Bitcoin climbs in March, but spot ETFs are neglected
The course of Bitcoin managed to grow by 1.8% in Marchi.e. its first month in the positive since September 2025. In the month of March, the buyers therefore dominated the sellers. But unfortunately, the situation has not evolved positively on the Bitcoin Spot ETF :
ETFs record very few incoming flows for several months, and we even notice that the inputs and outputs are less and less important. The graph above therefore leaves no room for doubt: theinterest in spot ETFs is low. Institutional players are abandoning the king of cryptocurrencies at the moment, and they are not the only big wallets taking a cautious stance.
Whales open short positions on Bitcoin according to an Alpharactal indicator
On considère que les whales are entities that have more than 1,000 BTCor at least 70 million dollars with a price of $70,000. With such wallets, they have the ability to shake up the crypto market. It is for this reason that the behavior of whales are scrutinized by très près by analysts and investors. And the graph below allows you to know if the whales are positioned more in long or short in relation to individual investors:
These large aircraft do not seem to benefit from the recent drops below $70,000 to bet on BTC. According to the indicator “Whale vs Retail Delta“The whales are build short positions :
The Whale vs Retail Delta indicator shows that whales are increasingly positioning themselves short, while retail investors are doing the opposite.
Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of Alphractal sur X.
The price of BTC is stuck against the moving averages (EMA 9/EMA 18), heading towards $60,000?
On a technical level, the course of Bitcoin remains bearish and fragile :
- the course has stuck against the wall at $73,000
- all returns at the level of moving averages (EMA 9/EMA 18) bearish result in rejections
- BTC seems to have marked a new peak around $76,000
There isn’t really any réveil you Bitcoin on this unit of time:
Therefore, if BTC continues on this trend, it could get back to around $60,000. A positive signal would be set up if it managed to exceed the moving averages and resistance at $73,000. And also if the RSI (momentum indicator) started again beyond the bearish trendline.
Investors in spot ETFs and whales do not seem convinced by Bitcoin at the moment. On a technical level, BTC is still fragile, so it could return to around $60,000. For its part, Ethereum could fall towards $1,700 in the event of a drop below $2,000.
BITCOIN NEWS THAT COUNTS
SUIVI PORTEFEUILLE STEADY LADS 100 000$
Allocation as of 03.04.26:
💵 Stablecoins : 68 % — 💰 Cryptos : 32 %
Following a stop loss executed in profit, Cara further reduced the exposure. The recent decline has made it possible to secure gains and lighten the portfolio. The portfolio now remains cautiously positioned, awaiting a new setup.
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