INTERVIEW – The director of the Iran project at the International Crisis Group believes that, although considerably weakened, the Iranian regime has no interest in engaging in negotiations until the cost of war is high enough for the United States.
LE FIGARO. – The American president announced in his speech on 1isIn April that the conflict was coming to an end, but he has since repeated his ultimatum if Iran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz: what does this mean for the rest of the conflict?
ALI VAEZ. – This speech contained no new information. The American president said it to reassure his voters, among whom support for the war effort is declining. If we look at American actions more than the president’s statements, and in particular the sending of ground forces, it is entirely possible that Trump is seeking to deal an additional blow to Iran in order to try to modify the balance of the conflict, or to obtain at least a victorious symbol. But it’s hard to imagine what that could be. The commitment of land forces risks aggravating this crisis and increasing both the cost and the risks. And above all, the end of the war depends on Iran, which is not going well this time…
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