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Global food prices may continue to rise if Iran conflict persists, says FAO

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Global food prices rose in March to their highest level since September last year and could increase further if the conflict involving Iran continues to drive up energy costs, the Food and Agriculture Organization stated, according to a report by Reuters.

Maximo Torero stated that price increases since the onset of the Middle East conflict have remained modest, driven largely by higher oil prices and cushioned by ample global cereal supplies. He added that if the conflict extends beyond 40 days and input costs remain elevated, farmers may respond by reducing inputs, cutting back on planting, or shifting to crops requiring less fertilizer.

He further stated that such decisions would affect future yields and influence global food supply and commodity prices for the remainder of the year and into the next.

The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks changes in a basket of globally traded food commodities, rose by 2.4 per cent from its revised February level. The index stood 1 per cent higher than a year earlier but remained nearly 20 per cent below its peak in March 2022, which followed the onset of the war in Ukraine.

The cereal price index increased by 1.5 per cent month-on-month, led by a 4.3 per cent rise in international wheat prices due to worsening crop prospects in the United States and expectations of lower plantings in Australia amid higher fertilizer costs.

Global maize prices edged higher as strong supply levels offset concerns over fertilizer costs, with additional support from rising ethanol demand linked to higher energy prices. Rice prices, however, declined by 3.0 per cent due to harvest timing and weaker import demand.

Vegetable oil prices rose by 5.1 per cent, marking a third consecutive monthly increase. Higher prices for palm, soy, sunflower and rapeseed oil reflected the impact of rising global energy prices and expectations of stronger biofuel demand, with palm oil reaching its highest level since mid-2022.

Sugar prices climbed 7.2 per cent in March to their highest level since October 2025, driven by higher crude oil prices that raised expectations that Brazil, the world’s largest sugar exporter, would divert more sugarcane towards ethanol production.

Meat prices increased by 1.0 per cent, led by higher pig meat prices in the European Union and bovine meat prices in Brazil, while poultry prices recorded a slight decline.

In a separate report, the FAO marginally raised its forecast for global cereal production in 2025 to a record 3.036 billion metric tonnes, representing a 5.8 per cent increase year-on-year, Reuters reported.

First Published on April 4, 2026, 22:17:02 IST.