On April 12, European capitals will have their eyes on Hungary where the political future of Viktor Orbán and therefore of the European Union is at stake. Legislative elections will be held and the Eurosceptic Hungarian Prime Minister, in power for 16 years, is behind in the polls against his opponent, Péter Magyar, center-right MEP and leader of the opposition Tisza party.
A defeat for Viktor Orbán would be good news for the defenders of the European Union as the standoff between the Hungarian Prime Minister and the European institutions has hardened in recent months, around the war in Ukraine.
Viktor Orbán ax sa campaign sur l’hostilité à l’Ukraine et à l’UE
A conflict that Viktor Orbán, a fervent ally of Russia, (he has met Vladimir Putin several times in the Kremlin since the start of this war), wants to place at the center of his campaign, by playing on fears.
On March 15, a national holiday, during a meeting, he declared to his supporters: “You must decide who will form the government of Hungary, me or Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. With all due humility, I recommend myself. »
In recent weeks, the Hungarian leader has taken a further step in hostility towards Ukraine, by using his right of veto within the 27, to block the European loan of 90 billion euros which the Ukrainians need to avoid bankruptcy in the middle of war. Viktor Orbán justifies this veto by accusing kyiv of delaying repairing the Druzhba oil pipeline, damaged during the war, and essential for supplying Hungary with Russian oil. “These elections will decide whether Hungary continues on the European road or whether it changes path and goes towards Russia,” said Benedek Javor, former Hungarian environmentalist MEP and representative of the city of Budapest to the European Union, interviewed in the show Ici l’Europe, on France 24, LCP and Public Sénét. For the MEP of the National Rally, Fabrice Leggeri, who participated, with Marine Le Pen, in a meeting in support of Viktor Orbán in Budapest, “this Hungarian election offers a choice between a Europe of Nations, embodied by Viktor Orbán, and a Europe under the leadership of the European Commission of Madame von der Leyen, who intends to dictate her policy to the European people. » The President of the Commission who was also the subject of hostile campaign posters from the Orban team.
Close ties between the Hungarian foreign minister and Moscow
For his part, opposition leader and candidate Peter Magyar denounces the links between the Hungarian government and Moscow. “Let it be clear to everyone, Viktor Orbána is bringing Russian and more experienced agents into our country to interfere in the elections and once again take away our most sacred good, the freedom of Hungary,” he assured his supporters during his meeting on March 15. Peter Magyar was able to surf on the controversies which undermine the power of Viktor Orbán on this subject. In recent weeks, several press revelations have shown that Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto maintained close telephone exchanges with the Russian authorities, during meetings of the European Council, and also for Work to lift EU sanctions against Russia. The minister in question acknowledged that he was communicating with Russia, considered a “partner” by his country.
Links between Hungary and Russia which do not erode the RN’s support for Viktor Orbán: “The National Rally has always said that Ukraine had been attacked by Russia and that it must arrive in a good position at the negotiating table”, recalls Fabrice Leggeri. But within the group Les Patriotes pour l’Europe, founded by Marine Le Pen and the Hungarian Prime Minister, “questions of foreign policy fall under the sovereignty of each State. The national delegations of our group do not have the same positions on everything,” explains the French MEP.
The rule of law, subject of standoff between Viktor Orbán and Brussels
Another subject of tension between Viktor Orbán and the European institutions: the rule of law. In power for 16 years, the defender of “illiberal democracy” is frequently singled out by Brussels for failings in respecting the rule of law: loss of independence of justice and the press, oppression of minorities (migrants, LGBT…), corruption. Since 2022, the European Commission has frozen 22 billion euros of funds allocated to Hungary. A year later, 10 billion euros of these funds were paid in exchange for the lifting of the Hungarian veto on aid to Ukraine.
If Péter Magyar wins, “we will have to recreate democracy in Hungary and a state of law,” believes Benedek Javor, “but it is not easy and it will not be done in a few days. We see that this task is difficult in Poland” for Donald Tusk, liberal and pro-European Prime Minister, who came to power after the ultra-conservatives of the Law and Justice party, sanctioned in the past by Brussels on these democratic subjects.
For Fabrice Leggeri, “Hungary is a democracy because there are elections. But for many years there has been an exploitation by the European Commission of this question of the rule of law. This was the case in Poland with the Law and Justice party, it is the case in Italy with attempts to use this issue against Giorgia Meloni, and we are absolutely certain that if the National Rally comes to power in 2027, this subject will be used against France.
But for Bulgarian MEP Radan Kanev, member of the European People’s Party group, we must be vigilant about the Hungarian situation, because “in Eastern Europe, and my French colleague cannot understand this, there has been, since the communist regime, a tendency towards the deep state, having an influence for example on the media. A regime that organizes elections is not necessarily a democracy.
