Bitcoin trades always winning? This is what a researcher promises, who claims to have found a way to position yourself for a guaranteed gain certain weeks. Decryption.
Predictable movements on Bitcoin for 8 years?
Analyst Sherlockwhale, known on X for his price analyses, claims to have found a way to position yourself in a winning manner on Bitcoin, which would follow the same principle every week:
I found a pattern on Bitcoin with a 100% success rate over 8.5 years of data. 18 out of 18, without any exceptions.
The trader claims that Bitcoin opens at a certain price every Monday, and that by observing the movements until Thursday, it is possible to extrapolate the end of the week:
If by Thursday the lowest price of the entire week has not fallen more than 0.25% below this Monday opening price, the week closes in green.
Sherlockwhale claims that this has affected 18 out of 18 weeks since 2017, eight and a half years ago. Following this pattern would also allow a significant average yield:
The average return when this pattern is triggered is +10.98%. Not 2% or 3%, but almost 11% in a single week. The smallest gain was +1.9%. The largest was +28.8%. Even the worst result was solidly profitable.
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Hence a piece of advice for traders: position yourself on Thursday to bet on the weekend:
Every Thursday, check just one thing: What was the lowest price of the week so far? If it has never fallen more than 0.25% below Monday’s opening, the week will close in green and there will be no further fall.
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A pattern that finds its limits…
Sherlockwhale’s analysis, however, was mixed by the X community. Some point out that it is possible to find patterns of this type from the moment we look for them, without this predicting anything for the future movements of Bitcoin. In other words, looking for a pattern until one is found on historical data does not prove anything about its future robustness.
It’s a compelling pattern, but its predictive value rests on the crucial assumption that future market mechanisms will exactly replicate the last eight years.
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Others point out that this type of pattern becomes obsolete the second a few people realize it:
Markets don’t reward such simple patterns for long. The moment everyone watches them, they stop working.
So be careful. This pattern has occurred 18 weeks out of the 442 weeks since 2017. It therefore remains measured if we take into account the overall history of Bitcoin.
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Source : Sherlockwhale via X
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Journalist at Cryptoast since 2017, I am passionate about the issues of decentralization, privacy and regulation. I specialize in traditional economics and finance by analyzing how news in this sector influences the cryptocurrency sector, providing a unique and informed perspective to Cryptoast readers.
Marine Debelloir
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