The Paris stock exchange extended its recovery, supported by a relative easing of the geopolitical context and reassuring monetary signals. According to press reports, the US government is considering ending military operations against Iran, now favoring a diplomatic solution to restore circulation in the Strait of Hormuz. This prospect has increased risk appetite while keeping oil prices stable despite heavily disrupted maritime traffic. At the same time, the Federal Reserve struck a measured tone. Jerome Powell stated that the institution has the necessary flexibility to assess the economic consequences of tensions in the Middle East without an immediate adjustment to its monetary policy. The Fed president also emphasized the well-anchored long-term inflation expectations, expressing concern that premature tightening of financial conditions could weaken the economic momentum. These factors have led investors to revise their expectations, now dismissing the short-term monetary tightening hypothesis. In this context, stock markets benefited from a more favorable environment towards the end of the session, with operators preferring to observe the evolution of geopolitical risks and their potential economic repercussions.
On the April futures:
Resistance levels: 7811 then 7825.5 and 7838.5, possibly up to 7865.5 then 7886 and 7903.5, maybe 7927 then 7949.5 and 7979 then 8030.5, 8053.5 and 8070.5, even 8109.5 then 8138.5 and 8159.5, possibly even 8178.5 then 8192.5 and 8247, perhaps 8270 then 8283.5 and 8341.5 and 8420.5.
Support levels: 7790.5 or 7746 and 7709 then 7685.5 or 7626 then 7606 and 7579 or 7477 then 7328.5 and 7200 or 7092.5 then 7466.5 and 7330 or 7164.
Intraday trend is bullish above 7838.5.
Graphically, the CAC 40 Future (see the 2 pm chart) has maintained the lower limit of the trading range in which the index has been moving since March 23, between 7685.5 and 7886 points. This stabilization followed the achievement of the long-term bullish channel objective at 7606 points, a level that provided strong technical support and encouraged short-term buying. A breakthrough of the upper limit of this horizontal consolidation phase would confirm the ongoing recovery, targeting the intermediate resistance at 8053.5 points, then an extension to 8085 points, corresponding to the theoretical range objective. Breaking through this zone would reactivate the short-term bullish momentum towards the lower limit of the channel at 8228 points. Reintegrating this bullish structure would end the current corrective phase and pave the way to fill continuation and rupture gaps, located respectively at 8391 and 8549.5 points.
Conversely, breaking below the intraday alert at 7685.5 points would signal fatigue in the current rebound, with confirmation of invalidation below the intermediate support of 7477 points. Below this level, the index would enter a new downward phase towards the neckline of the triple top reversal pattern, positioned at 7092 points. As long as this pivot level is preserved at the close, the long-term bias remains neutral. In contrast, breaking below would lead to a marked resumption of the corrective movement, targeting 5850 points, calculated by extending the height of the congestion zone.
In conclusion, we maintain our bullish speculative positions in the Dynamic portfolio and remain heavily invested in the Investor portfolio, favoring a positive trend resumption scenario. However, we remain vigilant and maintain a flexible approach, ready to quickly adjust our exposure if favorable technical signals are invalidated.
