Bitcoin is moving volatile around $66,600 as the extended long weekend sidelines potential buyers and gives sellers more control over price action.
With CME futures and ETF flows suspended during Good Friday, the market is poised to enter a liquidity trough even as its most reliable source of support is already beginning to weaken.
Bitcoin support at $65,000 is starting to look fragile, with the most active buyers in the market proving to be the most dependent on macroeconomic factors. In a recent report, CryptoQuant data shows apparent 30-day demand of around -63,000 BTC, even as ETF and corporate purchases reach multi-month highs, while Singapore-based market maker Enflux told CoinDesk in a note that the price floor is “Partly supported by expectations of rate cuts.”
ETF purchases have increased to around 50,000 BTC over the past 30 days, a level not seen since October 2025, while Strategy has accumulated around 44,000 BTC over the same period. However, overall demand remained negative, with sales from other participants far outpacing these entries.
The pressure is most visible among large holders, CryptoQuant wrote in a recent report. Wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC moved to a net distribution, with their year-over-year balance change increasing to around -188,000 BTC, compared to +200,000 BTC at the peak of the 2024 cycle. Mid-sized holders also slowed their accumulation sharply, while Coinbase premium remained negative, signaling weak US spot demand.
The result is a market where increased institutional activity does not translate into stronger price support. As more capital flows into regulated ETF wrappers and futures markets, bitcoin is increasingly valued based on macroeconomically sensitive positions such as hedging and allocation changes rather than broad-based spot accumulation.
This position is now being tested by inflation data, Enflux wrote. The ISM prices paid index jumped to 78.3 in March, its highest level since June 2022, undermining expectations of short-term rate cuts. Enflux said the price readjustment has already started to show in flows, with $296 million in net ETF outflows during the week of March 24 and moderate inflows in early April.
The long weekend eliminates a key stabilizer. With the closure of the CME and the suspension of ETF creation and redemption, the institutional supply that has increasingly anchored the price of bitcoin will be largely absent, leaving trading to spot markets where selling pressure has been most persistent.
CryptoQuant said any recovery rally could encounter resistance between around $71,500 and $81,200, levels that have limited previous bounces in the current bear market structure.
The broader test will come with US inflation data on April 9. If the March core PCE index rises above February’s 3.1%, rate cut expectations could fade further, strengthening the bearish case for bitcoin.
