The tension rises. The televised address by American President Donald Trump, delivered Wednesday evening from the White House, freezes market expectations concerning the evolution of the conflict with Iran. While investors were hoping for a signal of de-escalation, the speech instead highlighted an intensification of military operations. The president affirmed that the operation « Epic Fury » was approaching its strategic objectives, while promising strikes of increased intensity over the next two to three weeks if no agreement was reached. This offensive rhetoric immediately interrupted the technical rebound that began earlier in the week, causing a mixed reaction in reserve assets and risk markets like Bitcoin.
- Donald Trump’s televised address escalated tensions with Iran, promising increased military strikes, which roiled financial markets.
- Oil prices have climbed, with a barrel of Brent surpassing $105, due to prolonged uncertainty over global supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.
Hardening of diplomatic tone and tension on energy supply
The presidential speech has showered operators’ optimism who counted on a rapid diplomatic resolution. Donald Trump clarified that American forces had already neutralized a significant part of Iranian naval and nuclear capabilities, but he matched the continuation of the discussions with explicit threats on the country’s electrical infrastructure. This uncertainty over the duration of hostilities caused a mechanical rise in oil prices.
The barrel of Brent thus returned above the threshold of 105 dollars, while the barrel of WTI increased by 3% to settle around 103 dollars. The major issue remains the Strait of Hormuza transit route for a fifth of global crude production, currently under blockade. Although the president said the crossing would naturally reopen at the end of the conflict to allow Tehran to rebuild its economy, the absence of a precise timetable fuels the risk premium.
Oil markets now include the possibility ofa prolonged disruption of supplycontradicting hopes of a rapid fall in pump prices and weighing on the outlook for inflation on a global scale. And as often in recent months, bitcoin has reacted as a risk-sensitive asset rather than as a safe haven.
Bitcoin Reaction and Volatility of Digital Assets
During the speech, the price of the main cryptocurrency declined by 2%, falling below the $67,000 threshold. This downward movement led to theset of digital assetswith some major tokens recording losses greater than 5%. This correlation with stock market indices, which also fell after the speech, confirms the sector’s tendency to undergo corrections during each verbal or military escalation in the Middle East.
However, this decline is part of a technical consolidation phase where bitcoin has been oscillating between $60,000 and $73,000 for several weeks. The index « Fear and Greed » testifies to a feeling of extreme fear among operators, reflecting the uncertainty caused by the announcements from Washington.
If historical data suggests an often positive performance in April, the pressure exerted by military news seems, for the moment, neutralize seasonality factors. Resilience of technical support around $60,000 remains the main monitoring point for analysts in the days to come.
The repositioning of the American administration vis-à-vis Tehran maintains volatility and high pressure on energy raw materials. As long as the horizon for a ceasefire remains unclear, digital assets risk continuing their erratic evolution, punctuated by official press releases. The ability of the markets to stabilize their prices will depend directly on the evolution of the negotiations mentioned by the president, in a climate where the geopolitical risk premium now dictates the trend.
