FRANKFURT (dpa-AFX) – Oil prices should, for the sixth consecutive week since the start of the Iranian conflict, set the tone on the German stock market. Concerns linked to inflation and the economic situation fluctuate depending on how expensive they are.
Attention remains focused on military events in the Middle East. Every new announcement from American President Donald Trump, Israel’s next offensives and every reaction from Iran should be closely scrutinized and analyzed. The repercussions on the Strait of Hormuz are at the center of concerns, because this maritime passage, currently blocked, constitutes a vital artery for the global transport of crude. For the rest, the Easter week schedule appears to be rather light and the corporate results season is largely over.
“Donald Trump currently almost single-handedly determines the direction and pace of the stock markets,” summarizes Thomas Altmann, head of portfolio management at QC Partners in Frankfurt, about the recent market turbulence. For the Dax, the objective remains the threshold of 23,000 points, which has already been crossed upwards or downwards during six sessions since the start of the war at the end of February. “And it is very possible that other sessions will be added to this list.”
Experts at Landesbank Baden-Württemberg also expect a period of continued volatility. The war in Iran remains the predominant subject on the markets, which is why the situation should “remain unstable for a certain time, both in the Persian Gulf and on the stock markets.” “The effects of rising energy prices on inflation are already visible. Their impact on the outlook for corporate profits will only be revealed in the coming weeks, when first quarter reports are released and annual forecasts are refined.”
Before the next results season, some economic indicators are expected. In Germany, attention will turn on Wednesday and Thursday to industrial orders and industrial production. However, this is data relating to the month of February, before the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East.
American consumer prices for the month of March, expected on Friday, are considered crucial. They constitute “a key indicator for the first measurable effects of the war in Iran”, as Helaba indicates. After the sharp acceleration of inflation in Germany (2.7% in March) and a similar trend in the EU, market expert Michael Hewson expects inflation in the United States to rise comparably due to the conflict.
In recent months, consumer price growth in the United States had slowed, going from 2.7% at the end of 2025 to 2.4%. If the United States is “somewhat protected by the fact that its natural gas prices have not increased to the same extent as in Europe, signs of rising prices are starting to be felt elsewhere.”
On the business side, the conference call for analysts of the machine manufacturer Gea, scheduled for Tuesday, could prove interesting before the start of the silent period. This will last until the presentation of the first quarter figures in May. The online broker Flatexdegiro will publish its main financial indicators for the month of March on the same day.
On Wednesday, the final annual results of active ingredient researcher Evotec will be on the agenda. For the Mutares holding company, the subscription period for new shares resulting from the announced capital increase will begin. On Thursday, the Traton group, member of MDax, will invite analysts to its “pre-close call” relating to the first quarter. The truck maker plans to release the corresponding figures at the end of April./ck/jsl/he
— Par Claudia Müller, dpa-AFX —
