70 million targeted aids and an unwavering anger. While the conflict in the Middle East has led to a surge in fuel prices, the government announced targeted aid measures on Friday for the most affected sectors: fishing, agriculture, and road hauliers.
Under pressure from several road hauliers’ organizations, the lion’s share is reserved for struggling small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). They will receive the equivalent of 20 euro cents per liter of fuel. French fishermen, on the other hand, will benefit from an aid equivalent to “20 cents per liter” of marine diesel in April, through a refund upon presentation of fuel invoices. As for farmers, they will benefit from an exemption from excise duty on non-road diesel (GNR) used in tractors, costing an estimated 14 million euros. This will correspond to a decrease of “4 euro cents per liter”, according to a government source.
“Professionals have been forgotten”
These announcements did not appease the anger of professionals, illustrated on Monday by a first go-slow operation on the Parisian ring road, Porte de Vincennes. While Minister of Transport, Philippe Tabarot, emphasized on Europe 1 and CNews that the announced aid could possibly be renewed if the situation persists in May and June, the government sent a very clear message: 2026 will not be like 2022, a year that marked the beginning of massive support in the face of the energy crisis. “The government’s money is not infinite,” argued Labor Minister Jean-Pierre Farandou this morning.
“There has been an acceleration under pressure from the most exposed sectors of activity. I find these announcements on Friday evening a bit surprising,” noted the Senate’s budget rapporteur Jean-François Husson, who sees a connection with the transporters’ mobilization also announced last week. “There was insufficient preparation. Yes, in the Senate, we have always been in favor of targeted aid. But professionals were initially forgotten. I am thinking of health professionals, like nurses, whose daily routine is to be on the road,” he said.
On Friday, a few hours after the publication of a 2025 deficit less degraded than expected (5.1% instead of 5.4% of GDP), Minister of Public Accounts David Amiel stressed the need to continue the budget recovery in the country. He warned: the additional expenses due to sectoral support measures in the face of rising fuel prices must be offset by equivalent savings.
Does the government have other choices?
“The experience of 2022 was a disaster for public finances, even if it allowed some households to get by. For the moment, the State is waiting, hoping that the crisis will not last too long. Three factors are closely monitored: will the war in the Middle East continue? The hypothesis of a ground invasion of Iran. The price of oil could then reach $150. And finally, France’s fiscal situation is not good. This is the end of ‘whatever it takes’ and general aid,” summarizes economist Jacques Percebois, a specialist in energies and professor emeritus at the University of Montpellier.
This is why the government is not considering a measure requested by the opposition to lower fuel taxes, which represent 50 to 55% of the pump price. “If you implement general measures, it will cost you a lot of money and will probably be very ineffective, so today we are focusing on those who need it most,” justified Minister of Economy Roland Lescure, on the sidelines of the Global Industries fair.
Among the general measures, some political leaders, particularly from LFI, are pushing for the implementation of a “floating TICPE” to smooth pump prices. The principle is simple: to reduce excise duties in periods of high oil price increases to protect the purchasing power of the French, then to review them when oil prices decrease to limit the impact on budget revenues.
The National Rally, on the other hand, highlights one of the flagship measures of its economic program: a reduction in fuel taxes, arguing that they represent about half of the pump price. The RN wishes to both remove VAT on a basket of 100 essential products, but also reduce its rate from 20% to 5.5% on energies, namely gas, electricity, fuels, firewood, and fuel oil.
“These measures would have a very strong impact on public finances. And in addition, they would benefit everyone, including those who have the means to cushion the shock of rising fuel prices or those who mainly use public transport. Oppositions are seizing the opportunity, but the government is right to be cautious. For the moment, the impact of the energy shock on growth is limited to a few tenths of a point. We are not facing a risk of mass bankruptcies like during the Covid period,” notes economist Sylvain Bersinger, founder of the Bersingeco firm.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic artery for oil exports, but also for gas in the Gulf, is having a strong impact on countries dependent on fossil fuel imports, such as Germany where inflation is rising. “In France, for the moment, electricity, whose price is correlated with that of gas, remains stable because the share of gas-fired power plants has dropped below 3% in France, whereas it was 6% in 2022,” notes Jacques Percebois. The European electricity market depends, in fact, on the principle of the “marginal cost.” The price of the cost of the last unit of production – generally gas-fired power plants – used to supply the network serves as a reference for setting the price per kilowatt.
Towards an accelerated decarbonized electrification
Regarding the medium-term consequences of this crisis, Jacques Percebois predicts an acceleration of decarbonized electrification. “Investment projects in nuclear energy are on the rise. We saw this on March 12th during the fifth Nuclear Policy Council.” During a visit to the Penly nuclear power plant site in Seine-Maritime, the Head of State announced the construction of at least six new reactors, following France’s new energy roadmap.
“If there is a revival of nuclear programs, many countries will rush for uranium. That is why France announced that it would revive the fast breeder reactor program, reactors that produce more fissile materials than they consume. Another long-term effect of this crisis could also be the relocation of certain strategic industries in France, such as rare earth factories that were relocated for environmental reasons,” the economist concludes.
Regaining strategic sovereignty, a promise already made by the executive during the Covid crisis, but whose implementation remains insufficient as highlighted in a report by the National Assembly last year.
