For the past month, the Houthis, who have controlled large parts of Yemen and its capital Sanaa since 2014, have shown their support for the Iranians against the Israeli-American offensive.
After several threats of intervention, they acted on Saturday, claiming to have targeted “sensitive military sites” in Israel, following Israel’s announcement of detecting missiles fired from Yemen.
Their entry into the conflict “marks a serious escalation” and risks having “major consequences”, particularly for regional stability and global trade, according to Farea Al-Muslimi, a researcher at the Chatham House program for the Middle East and North Africa.
“Tit for Tat”
The Houthis likely “did everything to stay out of this war, they know it won’t bring them anything good. But they had to, in the end, retaliate against Iran” – who has supported them for years – states Farea Al-Muslimi.
For this first strike, they targeted Israel, as they have regularly done in support of Palestinians during the Gaza war, not American interests in the wealthy Gulf monarchies. A “clear” message to both inside Yemen and external allies: “the priority is always the Palestinian cause,” analyzed the American risk consultancy firm Basha Report on X. “At the same time, they tell the United States and Saudi Arabia that they are not targeting them, at least not for now.”
The next step, according to Basha Report, would be to target maritime commerce in the region rather than American targets, in order to “apply pressure without crossing a line that could trigger a direct response” from the US, who have targeted them in the past.
Second strategic strait in peril
From their mountainous positions on the Red Sea, the Houthis have the ability to disrupt maritime traffic with drones and missiles, as they demonstrated during the Gaza war by targeting ships linked to Israel.
They could disrupt traffic in the Bab el-Mandeb strait, one of the world’s busiest maritime corridors, which has become even more crucial in this strategic region for global oil since Iran blocked the other side of the Arabian Peninsula, the Strait of Hormuz.
Tankers and commercial vessels from the Indian Ocean pass through here to enter the Red Sea and then the Suez Canal, where they enter the Mediterranean Sea, and vice versa, with the only alternative being to sail around Africa via the Cape of Good Hope.
If this passage is compromised, global markets already destabilized would be shaken again. And Saudi Arabia may not stand idly by.
Risk of Saudi Arabia tipping
With the blockage of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia has seen tankers heading to its Red Sea export terminals, at the port of Yanbu.
But this is the last route they have to export their oil. If it becomes impassable, the kingdom may abandon its current position of simply intercepting Iranian missiles and drones falling almost daily on its soil, and now consider “limited retaliation,” says Saudi security expert Hesham Al-Ghannam to AFP.
And an escalation in the region
In their discourse, the Houthis threaten strikes on their Gulf neighbors. And as Farea Al-Muslim notes, “they are even closer and better positioned than Iran to strike Saudi infrastructure – which they have already done in the past – and Western military bases in the Gulf.”
With potentially “devastating consequences,” according to the researcher, particularly a high risk of a new “direct confrontation” between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia, who have been at war from 2015 to 2022, the date of a ceasefire that is currently being respected.
And a risk of new civilian casualties. If Yemen, already severely affected by the previous conflict, were to plunge back into war, the consequences would be dramatic, he assures.
