War in the Middle East: Is Iran Running Out of Missiles Soon?

Published on 29/03/2026 07:59

Reading time: 3 min – Video: 3 min

The communication war is raging, especially regarding the ballistic capabilities of the Iranian regime. According to the Israelis, these missiles cause very limited damage, while Tehran releases videos every day to prove otherwise.

This text is part of the transcription of the interview above. Click on the video to watch it in full.

Iran retaliates and makes it known every day since the beginning of the war. Strikes against Gulf countries and even in Israeli city centers. But, according to Benjamin Netanyahu, the Iranian enemy is running out of steam. “We are taking measures to destroy ballistic missiles and nuclear programs. Currently, I can announce that Iran no longer has the capacity to enrich uranium or produce ballistic missiles,” declared the Israeli Prime Minister.

This announcement was promptly refuted by pro-Iran analysts. “Massive increase in Iranian strikes. The Israeli army is lying about the extent of destruction of Iranian launchers and missiles,” reads a statement.

So, who is telling the truth? Will Iran soon run out of missiles? Missile production is one of the best-guarded secrets of the Iranian army. To detect a trend, one must gather clues by examining images from amateurs or satellites. That fire behind that mountain, topographical analysis reveals that it is happening at a significant missile production facility. Those small plumes of smoke seen via satellite, another crucial site in southern Iran.

Putting all this data together allows the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), an institute connected to the US Department of Defense, to describe a trend. “Among the factories hit by the strikes is Shahroud. It’s a factory where Iran planned to manufacture nuclear warheads and launch them from there. It’s hard to determine the overall effect these destructions will have on Iranian abilities to produce missiles, but we can say that the program has deteriorated,” explains Kelly Campa, head of the Middle East team at ISW.

Result: fewer Iranian strikes against Gulf countries, such as the United Arab Emirates. In three weeks, Iran went from launching 137 missiles and 332 drones to 7 missiles and 16 drones. However, Iran has accumulated a stockpile for decades, difficult to assess. “The production capacity, and therefore the ability for Iranians to launch massive salvos of missiles, especially ballistic missiles, has significantly decreased. However, there is still a real residual capacity for strikes because the mix of means used has evolved. We are moving away from missile salvos and all-missiles, but rather towards a mix of drone-missile, similar to what we see in Ukraine,” details Thibault Fouillet, a researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research.

Iran’s missile production seems to have been significantly reduced. But, thanks to the use of drones, easy to produce, and hidden stocks, Iran maintains daily pressure on its neighbors with less intense but still dangerous strikes.